Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 13, 2026?

Miami's high temperature settling in the 78-79°F range on November 13, 2026, would depend on several meteorological factors. This lower range is primarily influenced by the timely arrival and strength of a frontal passage, along with specific cloud and wind conditions ^[2][3][4]. A frontal passage occurring before or during Friday morning would favor the 78-79°F range by introducing northerly or northeasterly flow, importing cooler, drier air ^[2][3][4]. Persistent coastal or frontal cloudiness, which limits solar heating, and a stronger post-frontal northeast breeze would further contribute to the 78-79°F outcome ^[2][5][4][6]. Additionally, a noticeably cooler overnight minimum temperature on November 12–13 would indicate successful cold-air advection, supporting this lower temperature bracket ^[2][3][4].

A delayed or weak front increases the likelihood of 80-81°F, reflected in market probabilities. Conversely, a delayed or weak front, particularly one that allows for significant sunshine and a later wind shift, would favor the 80-81°F range ^[2][3][4]. Rapid clearing by late morning could enable Miami to reach 80-81°F even if a cooler air mass is present ^[2][5][4]. Lighter or later-shifting winds, which permit stronger daytime warming, would also support the upper temperature bracket ^[2][3][6]. A mild, humid night on November 12–13 would suggest a delayed or decaying front, further supporting temperatures in the 80-81°F range ^[2][3][4]. Market analysis indicated that the 80-81°F range was assigned a 50% probability, with the 78-79°F range as the runner-up at 26% ^[1][7]. Another market snapshot showed the 80-81°F range at 44%, suggesting that while the lower bracket was assigned meaningful probability, it was not considered the base case ^[1][7].

Crucially, exact front timing and forecast confidence remain unverified from available sources. It is important to note that the search results did not expose a contemporaneous NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion or an hourly observation/model package specifically for November 12–13, 2026 ^[2][3][4]. Consequently, the exact front timing and the level of forecast confidence from the retrieved sources remain unverified ^[2][3][4].

Specific data on NWS Miami forecasts after cold fronts is unavailable. The available research does not provide specific accuracy data for National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts of Miami's daily high temperature 72 hours after a November cold front passage, based on historical data from 2020-2025. The provided general historical summaries and recent market data do not specifically address Miami, the 2020-2025 period, or the particular conditions following a cold front ^[1]. However, general NWS official forecasts typically exhibit a 72-hour mean absolute error (MAE) of approximately 3.5–4°F for temperature ^[1].

Broader studies show varying temperature forecast accuracy over time. A peer-reviewed study from the 2003/04 winter indicated that temperature Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) over the Western United States grew to over 4°C (>7°F) beyond 120 hours, though 72-hour forecasts remained skillful relative to 24-hour persistence ^[4]. Additionally, a historical NOAA summary spanning 1966–1986 found no statistically significant improvement in NWS temperature forecast accuracy for 48–60 hour projections, suggesting persistent challenges for longer-range predictions ^[2]. While NWS Miami's tabular state forecast from November 11, 2026, described a sharp cold-front dip with recovery, this specific forecast does not offer historical accuracy data for the requested period ^[5]. Recent resolved Kalshi Miami markets showed tight outcomes, with market forecasts often resolving within 1–2°F of the favorite bucket, implying an approximate 2–3°F forecast error in stable conditions. Nevertheless, this market data does not reflect NWS forecast accuracy specifically after a cold front passage from 2020-2025 ^[3].

The research did not address GFS and ECMWF model differences. The provided information focuses exclusively on prediction market outcomes for Miami's maximum temperature on November 13, 2026. It does not contain details about the GFS and ECMWF weather models or their potential differences in temperature forecasts for Miami, thus preventing an answer to that specific aspect of the query.

Prediction markets indicated varying temperature ranges for Miami. Several prediction market snapshots revealed different central estimates for Miami's maximum temperature on November 13, 2026. A detailed snapshot from Frenzy Capital indicated an 80–81°F range with a 50% probability ^[1]. Conversely, a separate settling-market snapshot favored 82–83°F as the 50% probability outcome, suggesting either a shift in market sentiment or differences across various snapshots during the week ^[2]. Further market insights from a climate-market overview listed 80–81°F at 44% for Miami, with that market settling on November 14, 2026. These findings confirmed that temperatures in the low-80s Fahrenheit were the predominant forecast zone across these prediction markets ^[3].

The official maximum temperature for Miami International Airport (KMIA) is recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS) for settlement on November 13, 2026. This temperature is sourced from the NWS Daily Climate Report for Miami, FL, and represents the definitive value for the contract’s expiration. Any post-expiration revisions to this underlying maximum temperature are explicitly not used for settlement purposes ^[1].

Market expiration and settlement follow specific timing rules for this temperature record. The market expiration occurs at the sooner of either 7:00 AM or 8:00 AM ET following the data's release, or one week after the original expiration date. The designated settlement date is November 14, 2026, aligning with the rule that settlement takes place no later than the day after expiration and follows the official daily data release ^[2][1].

Temperature values are categorized into predefined outcome ranges for settlement. The reported maximum temperature is assigned to one of the following outcomes: 75° or below, 76°–77°, 78°–79°, 80°–81°, 82°–83°, or 84° or above. These assignments utilize inclusive bounds for all finite temperature ranges and adhere to specified below/above tail rules for the extreme categories ^[2][1].

Miami's forecasted high for November 13, 2026, is 79 0F. The projected high temperature for Miami, Florida, on this specific date is 79 0F (26 0C) ^[1].

The forecast indicates a temperature lower than the climatological average. This forecasted temperature is below the 30-year climatological average high for November 13 in Miami, which stands at 82 0F (28 0C) ^[2][3]. Therefore, the forecasted high temperature is 3 0F lower than the established climatological average high for that particular date ^[2][3].

The current best estimate for Miami’s November 13, 2026 high is about 80°F, with a practical forecast range of 79–82°F (26–28°C) ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7]}. The single most defensible market band is 80–81°F, though 78–79°F is nearly equally likely ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7]}. The forecast is being pulled lower by a strong cold front expected to pass from late Thursday night into Friday morning ^[2][7]. NWS-related reporting described Friday’s Miami Beach high as near 79°F and Saturday’s as near 74°F ^[2][7]. Clouds and showers are the principal downside catalysts: timeanddate forecasts showers late with an 82°F high, while other forecasts show overcast or cloudy conditions and highs of 79–81°F ^[1][8][3][4].

Warm-side catalysts include a delayed frontal passage, more pre-frontal southwest flow, and afternoon clearing ^[2][5][7]. These conditions could lift KMIA into the 80–81°F or 82–83°F bands ^[2][5][7].

Miami International Airport (KMIA) is the key measurement location ^[5][9][10]. Depending on the platform, settlement uses official daily Weather Underground/CLIMIA data or routine METAR observations, which may lead to slight differences from consumer forecast highs ^[5][9][10]. The high is most likely to occur around noon–3 PM local standard time; historical KMIA data cited by Almanac puts 63% of official highs in that window and 24% between 3–6 PM ^[10]. The high-temperature market for November 13 is not yet settled ^[11][9][10]. Robinhood states the event day is November 13 and resolution normally occurs within about one hour of event resolution, while the referenced market rules require the official station observation ^[11][9][10].