Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The highest temperature in Chicago on November 13, 2026 is likely to range between 41° and 42°, priced at 57.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's sharp downward trend was driven by weather forecasts issued on November 12 and 13 for Chicago. These forecasts detailed a significant cold weather event for November 13, including lake-effect precipitation with rain potentially turning to snow. The market, which resolves based on whether the high temperature reaches at least 39°F, priced in a very low probability of this outcome in response to the cold front advisories.
This sentiment is reflected in the price collapse leading up to the resolution date. The contract's probability fell from 17.0% on November 12 to 5.0% on November 13 as the forecasts solidified. While some reports suggested a possible high of 42-44°F, the market's price action indicates traders overwhelmingly weighted the evidence for a colder outcome, anticipating the high temperature would fail to reach the 39°F threshold.
- Maximum temperature 41-42°F is favored by multiple specific forecasts and market consensus.
- The 43-44°F range is supported by WGN and AccuWeather (O'Hare) forecasting 44°F.
- NWS expects cooler-than-normal conditions, with prolonged lake-effect rain and occasional snow.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39° to 40° | 5.0% | 4.1% | NWS expects cooler-than-normal temperatures with prolonged lake-effect precipitation, creating conditions for lower highs. |
| 45° to 46° | 3.0% | 2.5% | A delayed frontal passage or low tracking north could maintain warm advection, pushing temperatures higher. |
| 43° to 44° | 35.0% | 32.4% | This range is within the reasonable forecast, supported by WGN and AccuWeather predicting 44°F. |
| 41° to 42° | 57.0% | 59.4% | Multiple forecasts and market consensus strongly indicate a 42°F high, aligning with below-normal temperatures. |
| 38° or below | 1.0% | 0.8% | An earlier cold-frontal passage or stronger northwest flow could lead to colder deviations below 39°F. |
Current Context
Chicago's November 13, 2026 high is forecast below normal. The most likely high temperature for Chicago on November 13, 2026, is 42°F, with a reasonable forecast range of 42–44°F due to location and station variation [1][2][3][4][5]. Weather Underground's West Side/Midway-area forecast and ABC7 both indicated a 42°F high, with hourly temperatures reaching 42°F around 4 p.m. [1][3]. WGN forecast a broader Chicago-area high of 44°F, which matched AccuWeather's O’Hare page forecast [2][5]. The National Weather Service expects prolonged lake-effect rain and occasional snow through at least Saturday morning, followed by cooler temperatures through the weekend and warming next week [4]. The forecast high near 42°F is below the Nov. 13 climate benchmark of approximately 50°F for the average high, with an average low of 35–36°F [3][6][5].
Market odds currently favor a 42-43°F high. Polymarket-linked odds place 42–43°F first at approximately 40.5%–41%, ahead of 40–41°F at about 26.5%–27% [7][8]. Another market summary showed 42–43°F at 67% [8]. Market settlement methodologies vary; Polymarket-style contracts use routine KORD O’Hare METAR observations, while Kalshi-style contracts rely on the Weather Company’s Chicago Midway climate report (CLIMDW/KMDW) [8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Chicago weather: AccuWeather Alert for lake-effect rain/snow Friday - ABC7 Chicagoabc7chicago.com
- 2Tonight: Blustery; chilly rain mixed with wet snow at timeswgntv.com
- 3West Side, IL Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5Chicago O'Hare International Airport, IL Morning Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 6Chicago, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 7Highest temperature in Chicago on November 13: 42-43°F 41% - Polymarket Oddspolyinsider.io
- 8Chicago temperature markets and the stations that settle themillinoispredictions.com
- 9prorexevents.pxmarkets.ai
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 39° to 40°
📉 November 13, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 13.0% to 5.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop for the "39° to 40°" outcome appears to be a consensus among traditional weather forecasts. Multiple sources, including Weather Underground and WGN, predict the highest temperature in Chicago on November 13, 2026, to be in the 42-44°F range [1][2]. This consistent forecasting, moving away from the 39-40°F range, likely caused market participants to adjust their expectations, aligning with the leading Polymarket bucket of 42–43°F [1][2][3][4][5]. There is no evidence of social media activity driving this price movement in the provided information, making social media irrelevant.
Outcome: 41° to 42°
📈 November 12, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 51.0% to 60.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike was updated weather forecasts and advisories for November 13, 2026, which became available on November 12, 2026 [6][7][8]. These forecasts detailed a significant cold weather event, including lake-effect precipitation, potential rain-to-snow, and strong winds, with hourly predictions from Weather Underground and Foreca specifically reaching 41–42°F, directly aligning with the outcome [1][4][6]. Social media was irrelevant to this price movement, as no related activity was found in the provided research.
Sources (8)
- 1West Side, IL Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 2Tonight: Blustery; chilly rain mixed with wet snow at timeswgntv.com
- 3Highest temperature in Chicago on November 13: 42-43°F 41% - Polymarket Oddspolyinsider.io
- 4Hourly weather tomorrow in Chicago - Foreca.netforeca.net
- 5Weather in Chicago, US | Current Temperature & Forecast - WeatherAxisweatheraxis.com
- 6Chicago weather: Lake-effect showers, possible snow expected through Friday | FOX 32 Chicagofox32chicago.com
- 7Winter weather advisory issued for parts of Chicago area Friday – NBC Chicagonbcchicago.com
- 8Could a foot of lake-effect snow hit Chicago’s suburbs? What to know – NBC Chicagonbcchicago.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if Chicago's highest temperature on November 13, 2026, is 38°F or below; otherwise, it resolves "No". The market's expiration date is November 14, 2026. Special settlement rules apply if a material error is found in the initial data publication, potentially delaying expiration until a corrected revision or the expiration date, or resolving to the last fair price if no data becomes available.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41° to 42° | $0.57 | $0.44 | 57% |
| 43° to 44° | $0.35 | $0.66 | 35% |
| 39° to 40° | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 45° to 46° | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| 38° or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 47° or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Early observations and forecasts for November 13, 2026, suggested chilly conditions in Chicago, with airport readings around 38-40°F in the morning and various forecasts placing the high in the upper 30s to low 40s, significantly below the 49.5°F normal for the date [1]. Prediction markets predominantly converged on a high temperature of 42-43°F for November 13, 2026, with Polymarket contracts reaching 63.5¢ near expiry for KORD resolution and Kalshi showing this range as a 67% favorite for KMDW [2]. Traders noted that successful engagement in these markets often involves transacting close to the expected high and focusing on the specified airport station for resolution [3].
5. Trust Index
Integrity risk· Resolution quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score64Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. What weather system developments could cause the Nov. 13, 2026, Chicago temperature to deviate from the current 42-44°F forecast range?
| Current Market Temperature Expectation | 41–42°F (Chicago maximum) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Potential Colder Temperature | Roughly 39–40°F or lower [1][2][3] |
| Potential Warmer Temperature | Toward 45–46°F or higher [1][2][3] |
Chicago temperatures could deviate from current Nov. 13, 2026, forecasts. Current market evidence suggests a 41-42°F maximum for November 13, 2026, for Chicago, which slightly narrows a broader 42-44°F forecast range [1][2]. Deviations from this range could result from an earlier or stronger cold-frontal passage, leading to colder conditions, or a delayed frontal passage or a low tracking north of the city, causing warmer temperatures [1][2].
Colder temperatures would stem from an earlier, stronger cold front. The most impactful setup for colder deviations would involve an earlier or stronger cold-frontal passage, reinforced northwest flow, or a farther-south low track [1][2][3]. These conditions would increase cold-air advection and reduce the hours available for warming, making temperatures of approximately 39-40°F or lower more plausible [1][2][3]. This scenario reflects a meteorological risk assessment rather than a currently documented storm signal [1][2][3].
Warmer temperatures would result from a delayed front or northern low. Conversely, a warmer setup would include a delayed frontal passage or a low tracking north of the city, which would maintain prefrontal southerly winds and warm advection through the afternoon [1][2][3]. Clearer skies and stronger mixing could push temperatures toward 45-46°F or higher [1][2][3]. Additionally, the timing of cloud and precipitation is a key mesoscale uncertainty; early overcast conditions could cap the high, while a later-arriving precipitation shield or clearing before peak heating could raise it [1][2]. Lake Michigan shoreline effects and wind direction are further factors that can significantly influence local temperatures [1][2].
7. How do the November 13, 2026, high temperature forecasts for Chicago from AccuWeather, WGN, and ABC7 compare, and what explains their variations?
| AccuWeather Nov 13, 2026 High | 44°F [1] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Favorite High | 41-42°F (56-58.5% probability) [2] |
| AccuWeather Average November High | 47°F [1] |
AccuWeather forecasts a high of 44°F for Chicago on November 13, 2026. The forecast includes a low of 35°F, aligning with the typical November range of 38°–58°F and an average high of 47°F for the month [1]. Specific high-temperature forecasts from WGN and ABC7 for this date were not found in the available research [1][3]. Prediction markets, however, generally center on a high temperature in the low 40s, broadly consistent with AccuWeather's projection [2].
Prediction markets consistently indicate a high in the low 40s. Detailed prediction market data from platforms like Kalshi shows that a range of 41°–42°F is the most probable high-temperature outcome, priced at 56–58.5% [2][3]. This is followed by a 43°–44°F range at 24–29% and 39°–40°F at 16% probability [2][3]. Other platforms, such as Polymarket and Gemini, further reinforce this expectation, showing consensus around 42–43°F (62%) and 41–42°F (60%), respectively [2].
Minor forecast variations exist, subject to market settlement rules. Market guidelines explain that forecast differences of 1–3°F among various outlets are typically attributed to rounding and conversion discrepancies [2]. For the purpose of market settlement, the official high temperature value is determined by the maximum temperature reported by The Weather Company, with the understanding that preliminary data may differ from final reported values [2].
8. What do historical data from the NWS and climatological models suggest is the most probable temperature range for Chicago on November 13?
| Most favored temperature range | 41°-42°F (56%) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Overall probability of 39-44°F | Approximately 80% [1][2] |
| Mid-November climatological norm | Low 40s°F, specifically 41-44°F [1][3] |
Prediction markets suggest Chicago's November 13 high will be in the low 40s°F. Data from prediction markets indicate that the most probable temperature range for Chicago on November 13 is centered on the low 40s°F. A market for the highest temperature on this date identifies 41°–42°F as the favored outcome, with odds pricing between 56% and 61% [1][2][4][3]. This implies an approximately 80% probability that the high temperature will fall between 39° and 44°F [1][2].
This prediction aligns with Chicago's typical mid-November weather patterns. The market-derived temperature distribution is consistent with Chicago's climatological norm for mid-November, which typically features a daily high in the low 40s°F, specifically around 41–44°F [1][3]. Additional market data showing a roughly 50% chance of rain on November 13, 2026, reinforces the expectation of a cool and wet pattern, supporting a high temperature in the low 40s rather than a warmer day above 45°F [3].
Sources (4)
- 1Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
9. How does this market's settlement source (Chicago Midway/KMDW) differ from other common reporting stations (O'Hare/KORD), and what is the typical temperature variance between them?
| Average KORD vs KMDW Difference | KORD averaged 0.3°F colder than KMDW [1] |
|---|---|
| Days Matched Same Whole Degree | 134 out of 365 days (37%) [1] |
| Days Differed by >= 2°F | 70 out of 365 days (19%) [1] |
Daily temperature differences between KMDW and KORD vary significantly. Over the 365-day comparison period, the stations reported the same whole-degree temperature on 134 days, accounting for 37% of the year [1]. KORD registered warmer temperatures on 82 days, while KMDW was cooler on 149 days [1]. The stations showed a difference of at least 2°F on 70 days, or 19% of the year, with the widest recorded gaps reaching 5°F [1]. Notable instances of these differences included KORD at 73°F versus KMDW at 68°F, and KORD at 66°F versus KMDW at 74°F [1].
Local microclimates can cause notable day-to-day temperature discrepancies. A separate market commentary highlights that daily differences of 3–5°F are possible, particularly due to these local conditions [3]. These more significant variances should be considered an occasional range of temperatures rather than the average difference between the two stations [3].
Sources (3)
10. How do the GFS and ECMWF long-range model ensembles compare in their temperature predictions for Chicago for the week of November 13, 2026?
| Kalshi 41-42°F Probability | 56% (up to 61% in settling list) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi 39-46°F Probability Range | 96% [1][2] |
| Chicago Nov 13 Climate Normal (High) | 49.5°F [4] |
Explicit GFS/GEFS or ECMWF ensemble mean or spread values for Chicago's 2m temperature on November 13, 2026, were not directly found. However, prediction market data indicates a strong consensus among major model ensembles, positioning the temperature in the low 40s, despite specific per-model numbers remaining unverified [1][2]. The tight probability distribution within the Kalshi market suggests these models are likely in close agreement.
Market data indicates a colder, potentially wet day for Chicago on November 13, 2026. The Kalshi market KXHIGHCHI-26NOV13 for Chicago's maximum temperature on that date prices 41°-42°F at 56%, rising to 61% in the settling list, with 96% of the probability mass distributed between 39-46°F [1][2][3]. This market-implied high of 41-42°F is approximately 7-8°F below Chicago's 1991-2020 climate normal of 49.5°F for November 13, suggesting a colder-than-average day [4]. Furthermore, Chicago is identified as the ~50% favorite in a related Kalshi market concerning rain on November 13, 2026, which supports a potentially wet and temperature-capping weather pattern for the city [3].
Sources (4)
- 1Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4November Normals for Temperature, Precipitation and Snowfall for Chicago, ILweather.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Forecasts for Chicago on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, converged near 42°F, with ABC7 and Weather Underground listing 42°F, Foreca at 41–42°F, and WGN at 44°F [1][2][3][4]. The practical settlement band before final observations was approximately 41–44°F, with 42°F as the modal estimate [1][3][4][5]. While 45°F was possible, it was not the base case; 50°F or higher was strongly inconsistent with same-day guidance [1][3][4][5]. The Nov. 13 climatological normal of approximately 50°F means the forecast was around 6–8°F below normal, supporting bearish positioning on high-temperature outcomes above the mid-40s [4][6].
Key intraday drivers include the duration and intensity of precipitation. NWS Chicago reported prolonged lake-effect rain and occasional snow through at least Saturday morning, along with wet/slushy accumulation potential [7]. Upside risk for the high-temperature contract would require precipitation ending earlier, cloud breaks, weaker winds, or a warmer station-specific observation [3][7]. Conversely, longer-lasting lake-effect precipitation, wet snow, and stronger cold-air advection present downside risk [3][7]. A related Nov. 13 precipitation market listed Chicago around 46¢, indicating meaningful uncertainty for rain rather than a near-certain outcome [8].
Market-resolution risk is material, as Chicago contracts may resolve from NOAA hourly data at Chicago O’Hare or from The Weather Company; these sources can differ from consumer forecasts [9][10][11]. Catalysts during the Nov. 13 morning include NWS and airport observations and updated forecasts [7][9]. The maximum temperature was likely to be set during the Nov. 13 afternoon as warming peaked [9]. Settlement could trigger on Nov. 14 with the first following-day observation or the contract’s stated deadline [9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1Chicago weather: AccuWeather Alert for lake-effect rain/snow Friday - ABC7 Chicagoabc7chicago.com
- 2Hourly weather tomorrow in Chicago - Foreca.netforeca.net
- 3Tonight: Blustery; chilly rain mixed with wet snow at timeswgntv.com
- 4West Side, IL Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 5Chicago, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 6Chicago (O'Hare) 1991-2020 Climate Normalsweather.gov
- 7National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 8Where will it rain on Nov 13, 2026?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 9Highest temperature in Chicago on September 13?polymarket.copilot.markets
- 10Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 12, 2026? - Uitslag: 88° to 89° | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 11Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 13, 2026? - Ergebnis: 74° to 75° | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHCHI-26NOV11-T60: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHCHI-26NOV11-T53: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHCHI-26NOV11-B59.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHCHI-26NOV11-B57.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHCHI-26NOV11-B55.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
