Highest temperature in Dallas on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The highest temperature in Dallas on November 13, 2026, is expected to be between 69° and 70°, with multiple official weather forecasts converging on this range; the market prices this outcome at 62.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's decline was driven by forecasts of a "sharp cooldown" expected on November 13. A Dallas News report from November 12 stated that a cold front would cause temperatures to drop into the 60s. This news appears to be the primary catalyst for the contract's price falling from 50.0% on November 12 to a final price of 28.0% the following day.
Official weather forecasts reinforced this move away from the contract's specific temperature target. The National Weather Service issued a forecast on November 12 for a high near 69°F for the Dallas area on November 13. Separately, Weather Underground's forecast for the same day was a high of 70°F. With professional forecasts clustering just above the contract's implicit target, traders priced in a lower probability of the high landing at exactly 67°F.
- The 69-70°F range leads, based on converging official NWS, Weather Underground, and AccuWeather forecasts.
- The 67-68°F range follows, supported by the NWS tabular state forecast and ICON/AIFS model consensus.
- A cooling trend, noted by local news and models, suggests temperatures may fall below 67°F.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67° to 68° | 28.0% | 25.9% | NWS Fort Worth tabular forecast calls for 68°F, and model consensus averages around 67°F. |
| 69° to 70° | 62.0% | 64.9% | Multiple official weather forecasts converge on this temperature range for Dallas. |
| 66° or below | 3.0% | 3.5% | Specific models and local news reports indicate an expected cooling trend. |
| 71° to 72° | 5.0% | 3.9% | NWS forecast language mentions low 70s, but adjacent market data shows decreasing confidence. |
| 75° or above | 1.0% | 0.5% | Market data indicates this outcome is highly improbable, despite an outlier model mean. |
Current Context
Official forecasts generally expect a high near 69-70°F for November 13. The National Weather Service (NWS) Fort Worth forecast, issued 4:46 pm CST on November 12, 2026, predicts a sunny Friday in Dallas with a high near 69°F and a low of 50°F [1][2]. Weather Underground's almanac for the same date shows a forecast high of 70°F and a low of 50°F, against an average of 69°F. The all-time record high for November 13 is 85°F [3]. Dallas News reported on November 12 that highs would dip into the 60s by Friday across North Texas, following a Thursday high of 76°F and low of 53°F [4]. T-SPAN's November 13 forecast describes a sunny, comfortable Friday with morning temperatures in the lower-50s [5]. Weather Props' model consensus for 'High ≥ 69°F' at KDFW on November 13 was 59% as of 04:12 UTC, with the IFS Ensemble at >99% (mean 78.9°F), National Blend at 71% (mean 70.0°F), and NWS forecast at 56% (mean 69.0°F) [6].
Prediction markets currently lean towards 68-69°F as the most likely outcome. Polymarket's 'Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13' market, resolving on KDAL METAR maximums, showed 68-69°F leading at 39.3% as of November 13, 2026, 12:40 AM UTC [7][8]. Other outcomes included 66-67°F at 33.4%, 70-71°F at 11.8%, and 64-65°F at 9.9%, with approximately $16,000 traded across 11 outcomes [7]. Lines.com's analysis from November 11-12 indicated 68-69°F with a 54% implied probability, compared to 70-71°F at 24%, with $21,000 volume and $11,600 liquidity [9]. This market sentiment aligns with forecasters citing a cooling trend after a warm spell, with November 12 identified as the warmest day at approximately 79°F [9]. A Robinhood/Forecastex market also tracks the daily temperature LOW in Dallas for November 13, 2026, using Weather Underground's KDFW station observations [10].
Settlement rules vary by platform, with Polymarket using Dallas Love Field data. Polymarket resolves on the highest routine METAR temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field (KDAL) for November 13, excluding SPECI reports and converting Celsius to Fahrenheit rounded to the nearest whole degree [11][7]. Kalshi's market resolves based on data from DFW Airport (KDFW) [11]. The Polymarket event closes November 14 at 1:00 AM CST and typically settles around 7:12 AM CST [7]. Recent settled highs for Dallas include 80°F on November 11, 78°F on November 10, and 72°F on November 9 [7]. Looking ahead, there is a 40% chance of rain on Saturday and higher on Sunday, with the following week trending cooler and highs in the 60s [5][4].
Sources (11)
- 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 2https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/state/tx/txz086.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 3South Dallas, TX Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 4Dallas weather: Sunny, warm Thursday on tap as cold front slowly arrivesdallasnews.com
- 5Beautiful Friday, some rain over the weekend - T-SPANtspantx.com
- 6High ≥ 69°F · Dallas, TX — Weather Propsweatherprops.com
- 7Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
- 8Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 9Dallas November 13 High: 70-71°F Leads | Lines.comlines.com
- 10November 13, 2026: Dallas Daily Temperature Low November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 11Dallas high temperature rules: Kalshi at DFW Airport (KDFW), Polymarket at KDAL · Almanacalmanacmarket.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 67° to 68°
📉 November 13, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 55.0% to 28.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 27.0 percentage point drop in the "67° to 68°" outcome was the anticipated "sharp cooldown" due to a cold front [1]. On November 12, 2026, the Dallas News reported that temperatures would be "dropping into the 60s by Friday" (November 13) after a high of 76°F the previous day [1]. This significant temperature shift was explicitly identified as a "news/social-media weather catalyst for the weekend" [1], influencing market participants to adjust their predictions. Although specific social media posts are not provided, this statement indicates that social media activity likely served as a contributing accelerant, spreading the narrative of a colder forecast that coincided with the market movement.
Outcome: 66° or below
📉 November 12, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 22.0% to 11.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the price drop was updated traditional weather forecasts predicting higher temperatures. On November 12, 2026, multiple local news outlets and official National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicated that the high temperature for Dallas on November 13, 2026, would likely be in the upper 60s to low 70s, consistently above the "66° or below" threshold [2][3][4][5][6][7]. For instance, an NWS tabular forecast issued at 8:47 PM on November 12, 2026, predicted a high of 69°F [2], while FOX 4 reported highs returning to the seasonal average of 68°F [5]. This widespread shift in expectations, appearing to lead and coincide with the price move, made the "66° or below" outcome significantly less probable. Social media activity was irrelevant as no specific posts or narratives were identified.
Sources (7)
- 1Dallas weather: Sunny, warm Thursday on tap as cold front slowly arrivesdallasnews.com
- 2https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/state/tx/txz086.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5Dallas Weather: Mild Thursday gives way to a chilly Friday | FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worthfox4news.com
- 6Cooler temperatures, rain heading to North Texas after warm Thursday - CBS Texascbsnews.com
- 7Rain is FINALLY back in the forecastaudacy.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "66° or below" contract, a "YES" resolution occurs if the highest temperature in Dallas on the specified day (implied as November 13, 2026, from the URL) is 66°F or lower; otherwise, it resolves to "NO". The maximum payout date for this market is November 14, 2026. If a material error is found in the initial data or no data is available, expiration may be delayed until a revision or the expiration date, or markets will resolve to Kalshi's last fair price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | $0.62 | $0.39 | 62% |
| 67° to 68° | $0.29 | $0.72 | 28% |
| 71° to 72° | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 66° or below | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 73° to 74° | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 75° or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Forecasts for Dallas on Nov 13, 2026, generally suggest a high temperature between 68-70°F, aligning closely with the historical average high of 68.2°F for that date [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets show varied probabilities, but the 68-69°F bracket has frequently been the most likely outcome, with 70-71°F also appearing as a significant alternative [5][6][7][8][9]. It is notable that the market settles based on routine METAR observations from Dallas Love Field (KDAL), which may differ from other Dallas forecasts [5][6][7].
Sources (9)
- 1South Dallas, TX Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/state/tx/txz086.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 4Dallas November Weatherextremeweatherwatch.com
- 5Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
- 6Dallas November 13 High: 70-71°F Leads | Lines.comlines.com
- 7Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? - polycan.ccpolycan.cc
- 8Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 9Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? - Predsafepredsafe.com
5. Trust Index
Integrity risk· Resolution quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score75Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score30High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do the leading weather models—specifically the IFS Ensemble, National Blend of Models (NBM), and ICON—differ in their hourly temperature projections for Dallas on November 13, 2026?
| Hourly Temperature Range | 53°F to 71°F (November 13, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Weather Underground High | 75°F (November 13, 2026) [2] |
| AccuWeather Daily High | 70°F (November 13, 2026) [3] |
Specific hourly temperature projections for Dallas from leading models were not available. Research findings did not contain detailed hourly temperature projections for Dallas on November 13, 2026, from models such as the IFS Ensemble, National Blend of Models (NBM), or ICON [4][5][6]. Although meteorological platforms like Weather.us are noted to provide access to ICON Ensemble and ECMWF data (which includes IFS model information), specific hourly temperature values for Dallas on this particular date were not extracted from the search snippets. Similarly, available information regarding the NBM typically outlines its functions and updates rather than providing specific hourly forecast data [4].
Other sources provide Dallas temperature predictions for the specified date. Despite the absence of data from the requested specific models, other platforms offer temperature forecasts for Dallas on November 13, 2026. Hourly temperatures are generally expected to range from 53°F in the early morning, ascending to 71°F in the afternoon, and then gradually dropping to 61°F by 11:00 PM [1]. Weather Underground forecasts a high temperature of approximately 75°F for Dallas on that Friday, with mostly sunny conditions [2]. AccuWeather predicts a daily high of 70°F for Dallas on November 13 [3], and another report citing AccuWeather mentions a temperature around 19°C, which is approximately 66.2°F, for the same date [7].
7. What does historical climatological data for Dallas suggest about the probability of a high temperature between 69°F and 72°F in mid-November?
| Market probability (Nov 13, 2026, 69-72°F) | Approximately 34% [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Source of probability data | Forecast-market estimate (not historical climatology) [1][2][3] |
| Historical climatological data availability | Not provided for this specific range and period [1]. |
Dallas market forecasts a 34% chance for specific high temperatures. The market probability for a high temperature between 69°F and 72°F in Dallas on November 13, 2026, is approximately 34% [1][2][3]. This figure is calculated from a 32% probability for 69–70°F and a 2% probability for 71–72°F [1][2][3]. It is explicitly identified as a forecast-market estimate, not a historical climatological probability [1][2][3].
Historical climatological data for Dallas is currently unavailable. The available research does not contain historical climatological data specifically for Dallas regarding the probability of a high temperature between 69°F and 72°F in mid-November. While a separate market snapshot included probabilities for adjacent temperature bins—43.3% for 68–69°F, 22.1% for 70–71°F, and 3.9% for 72–73°F—these could not be accurately summed for the 69–72°F range due to imperfect overlaps [4]. The maximum temperature observation for this market is defined by routine KDAL METAR remarks on November 13, 2026 [4].
Sources (4)
- 1Highest temperature in Dallas on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Will the maximum temperature be 69-70° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. What specific atmospheric setup or short-term pattern could cause the high temperature to exceed 74°F, pushing it into the '75° or above' bracket?
| 75F or above probability | 0% (Kalshi snapshot) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 67-68F probability | 57% (Kalshi snapshot) [1][2] |
| 69-70F probability | 32% (Kalshi snapshot) [1][2] |
Specific atmospheric conditions are needed for Dallas to reach 75F. For the high temperature to reach at least 75°F in Dallas on November 13, 2026, a specific atmospheric setup would likely be necessary, involving a delayed frontal passage, sustained southerly warm air advection from the Gulf, clearing skies, and strong daytime mixing [1][3]. This combination of factors could contribute an additional 5°F or more beyond a typical baseline of upper-60s or near-70°F [1][3]. It is important to note that the cited sources do not provide a deterministic forecast supporting this higher temperature scenario; rather, this represents meteorological scenario analysis [1][3].
Market pricing indicates a low probability for temperatures above 74F. Current market pricing for November 13, 2026, implies a central temperature forecast near 67–70°F [1][2]. The cited Kalshi snapshot shows probabilities of 57% for 67–68°F and 32% for 69–70°F, while a temperature of 75°F or above is listed at 0% [1][2]. For settlement purposes, the relevant location is Dallas Love Field (KDAL), with the highest temperature recorded in a qualifying routine METAR observation on that date determining the outcome [3].
Available data provides scenario analysis, not a confirmed temperature forecast. The current evidence for November 13, 2026, consists of market snapshots and settlement rules, rather than an official National Weather Service forecast discussion or archived intraday observations [1][3][2]. Consequently, the atmospheric mechanism described serves as meteorological scenario analysis and does not confirm that the 75°F threshold was reached or is expected to be reached [1][3][2].
9. Which real-time data services provide the official hourly METAR reports for DFW Airport (KDFW) that will determine the market's final settlement?
| Strongest Official METAR Source | AviationWeather.gov (AviationWeather.gov) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Polymarket Identified Airport for Dallas | Dallas Love Field KDAL [5] |
| Kalshi Dallas Contract | KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV13 [6] |
AviationWeather.gov is the authoritative source for real-time METAR reports. This service, managed by the NOAA/NWS Aviation Weather Center, is recognized as the most reliable official real-time METAR source. It provides a public API that supports queries for airport observations using ICAO identifiers [1][2][3][4]. While other services, such as Loiter Maps and bulk-feed implementations, may utilize the AviationWeather.gov METAR cache, they are considered secondary and not the authoritative source for these reports [2][3].
Market settlement for DFW Airport lacks a consistently specified data source. The market title is ambiguous across different venues, leading to uncertainty regarding the final settlement data services for Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW) [5][6]. For example, Polymarket's rules refer to Dallas Love Field KDAL instead of KDFW [5]. Polymarket also specifies a settlement procedure based on the highest temperature from the hourly T######## remark in routine METAR observations, explicitly excluding SPECI reports but including routine off-hour reports [5]. Separately, Kalshi identifies its "Dallas" contract as KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV13 [6]. Given these discrepancies, the specific real-time data services that will determine the final settlement for KDFW remain unspecified across these platforms [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1推荐几个民航机场 METAR 报文的数据源 | CN-SEC 中文网cn-sec.com
- 2Data — Maps // Loiter.aimaps.loiter.ai
- 348b258b feat: bulk METAR event stream (4826 real stations, no rate limiting)github.com
- 4Weather APIs — 49 Free Weather APIs — API Bouncerapibouncer.com
- 5Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6Highest temperature in Dallas on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
10. What is the typical temperature variance between Dallas Love Field (KDAL) and DFW Airport (KDFW), and how does it explain pricing differences between the Polymarket and Kalshi markets?
| Polymarket Settlement Source | KDAL routine METAR hourly temperature remarks (Nov. 13, 2026 Dallas market) [1] |
|---|---|
| Polymarket Leading Outcome | 68–69°F at 43.3% (Nov. 13, 2026) [1] |
| Kalshi Leading Outcome | 67–68°F at 58% (Nov. 13, 2026) [2] |
Pricing disparities between platforms arise primarily from contractual differences. The most significant explanation for the pricing difference between Dallas Love Field (KDAL) and DFW Airport on various platforms is a contract mismatch. Polymarket settles outcomes based on KDAL-specific METAR observations, whereas Kalshi utilizes an unspecified Dallas maximum-temperature reference. Additional contributing factors include distinct temperature bins and the use of stale or asynchronous data snapshots by the platforms [1][2].
Specific examples demonstrate varying temperature distributions across platforms. For the November 13, 2026 Dallas market, Polymarket's outcomes are resolved using routine METAR hourly temperature remarks from KDAL, explicitly excluding SPECI observations. The leading outcome on Polymarket showed 68–69°F at 43.3%, with other notable outcomes being 66–67°F at 24% and 70–71°F at 22.1%; this data was identified as stale [1]. In contrast, Kalshi's distribution for the same date prominently favored 67–68°F at 58%, followed by 69–70°F at 31%. Smaller percentages were observed for 66°F or below (15%) and 71–72°F (2%). These differences in pricing and distribution between the platforms are largely attributed to their distinct contract specifications, varying temperature bins, and the potential use of stale or asynchronous data snapshots [2][1].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Polymarket odds for Dallas on November 13, 2026, show 68-69°F at approximately 39.3%, 66-67°F at approximately 33.4%, and 70-71°F at approximately 11.8% [1][2]. Bullish sentiment for the 70-71°F bracket centers on expectations of sunny/clear skies from a shortwave ridge and dry air aloft [3]. The NWS tabular forecast issued 8:47 PM CST Nov 12, 2026, calls for a Dallas high of 69°F [4], while Weather Underground forecasts 70°F for South Dallas on Nov 13, 2026 [5]. Earlier Polymarket pricing (Nov 11–12) had the 70-71°F range leading at 39% before a fade, with Lines.com noting 53.5% of traders at one point viewed the 70-71°F bracket as the peak [3].
Conversely, bearish pressure favors the 66-67°F bracket. A back-door cold front pushed through Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing NE winds 5-10 mph and cooler-than-earlier-week temperatures [6]. Model consensus skews below the NWS 69°F forecast, with ICON at 67.0°F, AIFS at 66.8°F, IFS HRES at 65.9°F, and WeatherNext at 65.6°F [7]. The NWS carries a 56% probability of a high >=69°F, contrasting with 33% for ICON/AIFS models [7]. The 66-67°F outcome has gained +17 points in 24 hours on Polymarket [2].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (7)
- 1Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
- 2Highest temperature in Dallas on November 13? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Dallas November 13 High: 70-71°F Leads | Lines.comlines.com
- 4https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/state/tx/txz086.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 5South Dallas, TX Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 6Dallas/Fort Worth NWS Area Forecast Discussion (FWD) | Vertexvertexmaps.com
- 7High ≥ 69°F · Dallas, TX — Weather Propsweatherprops.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV11-T85: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV11-T78: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV11-B84.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV11-B82.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV11-B80.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
