Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The highest temperature in Denver on November 13, 2026, is expected to range between 64° and 65°, influenced by current forecasts for the day. The market prices this outcome at 55.0%, diverging from the model's 70.2%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's downward move is a direct reaction to official weather forecasts solidifying around a high temperature in the mid-60s. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for a 64°F high, corroborated by a multi-source median of 63.6°F from Groundhog.markets, reduced the perceived probability of the high landing below that range. This drove the contract's price down from a 20% probability to its current level of 12%.
The NWS forecast discussion adds conviction to this trend by specifying that above-normal temperatures are expected to persist, with cloud cover being the primary factor limiting highs to the low to mid-60s. The market move aligns with this professional meteorological consensus. Trading volume of 71 contracts on the final drop to 12% indicates that participants are actively pricing in this high-confidence forecast data as the resolution date approaches.
- 64–65°F leads, driven by the NWS Denver/Boulder forecast for a high near 65°F.
- 62–63°F is also favored; Groundhog.markets' median projects 63.6°F.
- Cloud cover is expected to hold low-elevation temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66° to 67° | 11.0% | 5.5% | This warmer range is considered a less probable outcome by current market conditions. |
| 64° to 65° | 55.0% | 70.2% | This temperature range is currently the most expected outcome based on available data. |
| 68° or above | 1.0% | 0.5% | Temperatures in this significantly warmer range appear to be a very improbable scenario. |
| 60° to 61° | 1.0% | 0.5% | This particular cooler temperature range is considered a very remote possibility. |
| 62° to 63° | 26.0% | 21.6% | This range appears to be a strong secondary possibility according to market assessments. |
Current Context
Official forecasts project Denver's high temperature in the low to mid-60s. The National Weather Service (NWS) Denver/Boulder State Forecast, issued 11:48 PM MST on November 12, 2026, calls for Denver on Friday, November 13, to have a high of 64°F and a low of 39°F, with partly cloudy skies and 0% chance of precipitation [1]. The NWS Denver/Boulder forecast discussion (12:05 AM MST, November 13, 2026) specifies that above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through Friday, with cloud cover holding low-elevation highs in the low to mid 60s [2]. Groundhog.markets' median of nine free forecasts (as of 08:48Z, November 13, 2026, station KDEN) indicates a high of 63.6°F (with a spread of 62.7–64.2°F) and a low of 39.0°F for Nov 13, alongside a less than 2% chance of rain [3].
Prediction markets currently price 64–65°F as the most probable outcome. Kalshi's market for the highest temperature in Denver on November 13, 2026, prices the 64–65°F range at 55%, with 66–67°F at 23%, 62–63°F at 18%, and 68°+ at 4% [4]. The Gemini market, via CoinRithm (updated Nov 13, 2026), shows 64–65°F at 54.1%, followed by 62–63°F at 28.9%, and 66–67°F at 14.9% [5]. Both Kalshi and Gemini markets resolve on November 14, 2026, using NWS CLIDEN data and the first published NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Denver, respectively [4][5].
Denver has experienced above-average temperatures ahead of Friday's forecast. NWS preliminary climatological data for Denver through November 11, 2026, indicates a monthly average high of 62.5°F, which is 6.2°F above the normal 49.3°F for the period [6]. The highest temperature for the month to date was 72°F, recorded on November 9 [6]. A KDVR meteorologist noted on November 9 that temperatures were approximately 15°F warmer than Denver's average, with this warm spell projected to continue through the week of November 9–15 [7][8]. A broad upper-level trough is expected to bring near-average temperatures and light mountain snow to areas above 10,000 ft on Saturday [2]. A pattern change with cooler, more active weather is anticipated by Wednesday, November 18, potentially continuing through Thanksgiving week [2].
Sources (8)
- 1SFT from KBOUkamala.cod.edu
- 2WEATHERTrackCAST - Denver, CO Forecast Discussionweathertrackcast.com
- 3Denver, CO weather forecastgroundhog.markets
- 4Highest temperature in Denver tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5Highest temperature in Denver on November 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 7Denver temperatures soar 15 degrees above November average as residents question unusual warmththecooldown.com
- 8Weekly Weather Outlook for Colorado: Nov. 9 through Nov. 15denvergazette.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 November 12, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 18.0% to 28.0%
Outcome: 62° to 63°
What happened: The available market data does not substantiate a 10.0 percentage point spike for the "62° to 63°" outcome in the "Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026?" market on November 12, 2026; instead, the market explicitly reported "odds steady" for the biggest 24-hour move [1]. Therefore, there was no significant price movement to attribute to any specific driver. While social media posts documented public attention to the unusually warm Denver weather, this activity appears to be a reaction or amplifier rather than a catalyst for market movement [2][3]. Social media activity in this context is irrelevant as a primary driver since no significant market movement occurred.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "YES" if the highest temperature in Denver for "today" falls within the specific range of the purchased contract, and "NO" if it falls outside that range. While focused on daily temperatures, the overall series has an expiration date of November 14, 2026. The Exchange, at its sole discretion, may delay expiration if there are material errors in the initial temperature data publication, waiting for a revision or until the Expiration Date, or resolving to the last fair price if data remains unavailable.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | $0.55 | $0.46 | 55% |
| 62° to 63° | $0.27 | $0.74 | 26% |
| 66° to 67° | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| 59° or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 60° to 61° | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| 68° or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets largely project Denver's high temperature on November 13, 2026, to be in the low to mid-60s, with Kalshi pricing 64–65°F at 55% and CoinRithm at 54.1% [1]. This aligns with Groundhog Markets' median forecast of 63.6°F and general weather outlooks predicting low to middle 60s [2]. The forecast occurs during an unusually warm and dry November for Denver, with recent temperatures significantly above average [3].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score29Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score65Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. What meteorological catalysts could cause Denver's November 13 high to significantly miss the NWS and Groundhog.markets forecasts?
| Denver Nov 13, 2026 High Temp Baseline | 64–65°F [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Probability 62–63°F | 27–29% [1][2][3] |
| Probability 59°F or lower | 0.5–2% [1][2][3] |
Prediction markets currently forecast a Denver high of 64–65°F. The baseline forecast for Denver's highest temperature on November 13, 2026, is projected by prediction markets to be between 64–65°F [1][2][3]. As of the current date, there is no available information identifying specific meteorological catalysts that could significantly alter this prediction from National Weather Service (NWS) and Groundhog.markets forecasts.
Probabilistic distributions indicate varying likelihoods for other temperature ranges. Beyond the primary forecast, the probabilistic distribution assigns approximately 27–29% to a temperature range of 62–63°F, while 12–16% is attributed to 66–67°F [1][2][3]. The likelihood of the temperature reaching 68°F or higher stands at about 2%, and a roughly 0.5–2% chance is given to temperatures of 59°F or lower, with slight variations depending on the prediction venue and timestamp [1][2][3].
Market settlement methodologies introduce potential for forecast discrepancies. The settlement methodology is a critical factor, as different prediction markets rely on distinct data sources for their temperature determinations [1][2]. For example, one market may cite the NWS daily climatological report, while another refers to The Weather Company for Denver's maximum temperature (CLIDEN) [1][2]. These discrepancies mean that differences between preliminary and final reporting can become significant, particularly around the narrow 64–65°F forecast boundary [1][2].
7. How has the temperature trend in Denver during early November 2026, as reported by NWS, influenced the final forecasts for November 13?
| Denver Nov 13 Normal High | 53°F [1] |
|---|---|
| Market Forecast Nov 13 High | 64–65°F [2][1] |
| Market Probability for 64-65°F | 54–55% [2][3][4] |
Denver's November 13, 2026 forecast predicted significantly warmer temperatures. Final forecasts indicated a warm continuation for the city, with the most supported high temperature range being 64–65°F. This prediction significantly exceeded the normal high of 53°F for that date, representing an 11–12°F increase over seasonal norms [2][1][4].
Market probabilities largely favored a 64-65°F high, with notable uncertainty. Approximately 54–55% probability was assigned to the 64–65°F range for November 13, 2026. While this was the most likely outcome, a downside alternative of 62–63°F held roughly 27–29% probability, and an upside risk of 66–67°F was estimated at about 12–16% [2][3][4].
Early November trends' influence on forecasts could not be quantitatively confirmed. Despite the warm forecast, the specific impact of early November 2026 temperature trends on this forecast shift could not be quantitatively verified using available NWS observations. The retrieved NWS search results did not provide a dated daily observation table for November 1–12, 2026, making it impossible to independently reconstruct the claim that early-November warmth caused the shift [2][3][1].
Sources (4)
- 1NWS Boulder Denver Daily Normals and Records Novemberweather.gov
- 2Highest temperature in Denver on November 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. How do the implied probabilities for each temperature bracket compare between the Kalshi and Gemini prediction markets as of November 13, 2026?
| Kalshi's highest probability bracket | 64–65°F at 55% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Gemini's highest probability bracket | 64–65°F at 54.1% [1][2] |
| Largest probability point difference | Gemini 2.9 percentage points higher for 66–67°F [1][2] |
Kalshi and Gemini show distinct temperature probability distributions for Denver. A comparison of implied probabilities for the highest temperature in Denver on November 13, 2026, from Kalshi and Gemini prediction markets reveals these differences across comparable brackets [1][2]. Gemini exhibits a slightly higher concentration of probabilities toward the 66–67°F and 60–63°F ranges, while Kalshi assigns a marginally greater probability to the 64–65°F bracket [1][2].
Specific temperature brackets reveal varying probability leads between platforms. For the 60°F to 61°F bracket, Gemini shows 2.1% compared to Kalshi's 2%, giving Gemini a 0.1 percentage point lead [1][2]. In the 62°F to 63°F range, Gemini's 28.9% is 0.9 percentage points higher than Kalshi's 28% [1][2]. The 64°F to 65°F bracket is identified as the most likely outcome on both platforms, with Kalshi at 55% and Gemini at 54.1%, providing Kalshi a 0.9 percentage point advantage [1][2]. The most significant difference is observed in the 66°F to 67°F bracket, where Gemini's 14.9% is 2.9 percentage points higher than Kalshi's 12% [1][2].
Discrepancies arise from different methodologies and resolution sources. These small discrepancies do not necessarily indicate pure forecasting disagreements [1][2]. Gemini's quoted probabilities are explicitly adjusted for vigor and normalized, contrasting with Kalshi's displayed outcome odds, which are presented as venue odds [1][2]. Furthermore, the markets use different sources for resolution; Kalshi references The Weather Company, while Gemini utilizes the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) [3][2].
9. Which specific NWS report will be used for settlement, and what is its typical publication schedule and data source?
| Resolution Source Document | NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Denver CO [1] |
|---|---|
| Report Specific Identifier | CLIDEN Climatological Report (Daily), WMO header CDUS45 KBOU [2] |
| Data Origin | Denver CO climate station's daily observations [3] |
The Gemini market settles using a specific NWS daily report. For instance, the "Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026?" market resolves based on the highest temperature reported in the first published version of the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Denver CO [1]. This document is formally identified as the CLIDEN Climatological Report (Daily), which is issued by NWS Denver/Boulder under the WMO header CDUS45 KBOU [2].
NWS offices typically transmit the Daily Climate Report multiple times daily. The Daily Climate Report (CLI) is usually transmitted three times a day: an early morning report provides data for the preceding day, while later afternoon and evening reports cover the current day's observations [4][5]. Specific examples of early-morning final CLIDEN reports include those issued around 6:45 AM MDT on May 10, 2025, and 7:30 AM MST on Jan 26, 2026, typically valid as of approximately 0600-0700 local time [2]. Preliminary versions for the same day were observed around 5:30-5:45 PM MDT on Oct 5 and Oct 7, 2026 [2].
The CLIDEN report gathers comprehensive daily climate station observations. The data presented in the CLIDEN report is sourced from the daily observations of the Denver CO climate station [3]. This includes various metrics such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation totals, wind speeds, gusts, and relative humidity [3]. These data points are benchmarked against 1991-2020 climate normals and incorporate historical data ranging from 1872 to the present [3].
Sources (5)
10. How does the market-implied probability on Kalshi for a 64–65°F high compare to the historical temperature distribution for November 13 in Denver?
| Market Probability for 64-65°F high | Approximately 55% [1] |
|---|---|
| Market Mode vs. Historical Normal | Approximately 11-12°F above [2][3] |
| Historical Normal High (Nov 13) | 53°F [2] |
Kalshi indicates a strong market preference for warmer November 13 temperatures. The market-implied probability on Kalshi for a high temperature of 64–65°F in Denver on November 13, 2026, stands at approximately 55%, establishing it as the most likely outcome [1]. This predicted market mode represents a significant departure from historical averages, being about 11–12°F above the normal high of 53°F for that specific date [2][3].
Kalshi’s full market distribution shows warmer temperatures as most likely. Beyond the favored 64–65°F range, other probabilities for November 13, 2026, on Kalshi include approximately 28% for 62–63°F, 12% for 66–67°F, 2% for 68°F or above, 2% for 60–61°F, and 0% for 59°F or below [1]. Historically, NWS Boulder/Denver data indicates that the normal high for November 13 is 53°F, with the record high for that date being 75°F [2]. Minor timing differences account for slight variations in reported market probabilities for the 64–65°F range, such as 51.9% or 55.5% [4]. However, the exact historical probability of the temperature falling within the 64–65°F range is not explicitly verified by the provided sources [3].
Sources (4)
- 1Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2NWS Boulder Denver Daily Normals and Records Novemberweather.gov
- 3Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The NWS Denver/Boulder forecast, issued 11:46 AM MST Nov 12, 2026, predicts Friday, Nov 13, will be partly sunny with a high near 65°F and a low of 39°F [1]. The 12:05 AM MST Nov 13 discussion expects cloud cover to hold low-elevation temperatures in the low to mid 60s [2]. Groundhog.markets' median of nine free forecasts for Nov 13, 2026, as of 08:48Z, projects a high of 63.6°F (spread 62.7–64.2°F) and a low of 39.0°F at Denver Intl (KDEN), with less than a 2% chance of rain [3]. Kalshi KXHIGHDEN-26NOV13 odds place 64°–65° as the favorite at 55% (+1pt), with 66°–67° at 23% (+2pts) and 62°–63° at 18% [4]. Gemini's parallel market prices 64°F–65°F at 54.1% and 62–63°F at 28.9% [5]. Frenzy Capital shows approximately $2K in 24-hour volume for Kalshi, with odds stable over the past day [6].
Bullish catalysts for the 64–65° band include the NWS message of above-normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailing through Friday, supported by a weakening but still warm ridge [2]. KDVR reports Friday highs in the mid-60s [7]. Conversely, bearish factors encompass increasing high cloud cover from the west through Friday afternoon and evening, which could cap temperatures [2]. An approaching shortwave trough is expected to cool the region to near-average mid-50s by Saturday [2][1]. The Nov 13 normal high for Denver is 53°F, making the forecasted ~64–65°F well above normal [8][2].
Market settlement mechanics introduce specific risks. Kalshi daily-high contracts resolve against the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLIDEN, Denver Intl), using whole °F from midnight to midnight standard time [9]. A 0.1°C rounding difference in the Celsius-to-Fahrenheit conversion pipeline can shift the reported value by 1°F at band boundaries, implying contracts within approximately 2°F of the forecast carry rounding risk rather than solely weather risk [9][3][10]. The market begins trading Nov 13, 2026, at 2:00 AM EST, with the daily high typically set in mid-afternoon local time [4][11]. NWS forecast updates, such as the 12:05 AM MST and 11:46 AM MST editions, represent key intraday catalysts for repricing [2]. Expiration and resolution occur Nov 14, 2026, with Gemini's market resolving at 4:59 AM UTC against the first-published NWS Climatological Report [5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1Denver 7 Day Weather Forecast with Current Weather Conditions for, CA." />eldoradoweather.com
- 2https://www.eldoradoweather.com/forecast/united%20states/Colorado/Denver/forecast-discussion.phpeldoradoweather.com
- 3Denver, CO weather forecastgroundhog.markets
- 4Highest temperature in Denver tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5Highest temperature in Denver on November 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 7Denver weather: Comfy before weekend rain, snowkdvr.com
- 8NWS Boulder Denver Daily Normals and Records Novemberweather.gov
- 9We Built a Weather Trading Bot. Here's What Day 1 Taught Us. — DiveEdge Researchdiveedge.io
- 10Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 12, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 11Kalshi Weather Has Two Clocks, And Most Traders Miss One | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHDEN-26NOV11-T68: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHDEN-26NOV11-T61: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHDEN-26NOV11-B67.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHDEN-26NOV11-B65.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHDEN-26NOV11-B63.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
