Highest temperature in Houston on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The market treats a high temperature in Houston of 81°F or above on November 13, 2026, as a toss-up (47.0%).
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
A social media narrative about unseasonable November warmth in Houston was the primary driver of the market's largest move. On November 12, probabilities for a high of 81°F or above spiked 30.0 percentage points from 6.0% to 36.0%. The context attributes this repricing to a narrative amplified across Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok, which highlighted Houston's recent record-setting warm years.
The market moved higher again on November 13, pushed by professional weather forecasts. A 13.0 percentage point increase to 47.0% was linked to an AccuWeather prediction for George Bush Intercontinental which included a "RealFeel 82°". This move occurred even as other forecasts indicated high temperatures ranging from the mid-70s to 79°F.
- 81° or above and 79° to 80° are most probable, influenced by AccuWeather's 79°F forecast.
- Top outcomes exceed Hobby Airport's 74°F 30-year average high for November 13th.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81° or above | 47.0% | 43.3% | Climate trends and long-range forecasts indicate an elevated probability of above-average November temperatures in Houston. |
| 77° to 78° | 9.0% | 8.5% | Mild autumn conditions in Houston often see temperatures in this range, reflecting its subtropical climate. |
| 79° to 80° | 45.0% | 41.5% | Houston's mid-November temperatures often reach this range, influenced by warm fronts, subtropical climate, and warming trends. |
| 73° to 74° | 2.0% | 1.9% | A weak cool front could bring temperatures in this range, which is plausible for a mild Houston fall day. |
| 72° or below | 1.0% | 1.0% | Strong cold fronts or persistent northerly winds are usually needed for temperatures this low in Houston. |
Current Context
Houston's November 13, 2026 high temperature forecast was 78–79°F. The best forecast placed the high around 78–79°F. AccuWeather explicitly predicted 79°F for George Bush Intercontinental, while other products ranged from the mid-70s to 78°F depending on the station and update [1][2][3][4][5]. Conditions were expected to be sunny, dry, and pleasant. AccuWeather listed approximately 1% precipitation probability, with no meaningful Friday rain signal in NWS or local forecasts [1][2][4][6]. The subsequent forecast indicated a wetter pattern, with spotty showers potentially late Saturday, more widespread rain and thunderstorms Sunday, possible strong storms, and cooler temperatures behind a late-Sunday or Monday front [6][7][8].
Prediction markets showed 1–3°F uncertainty around the high temperature. Markets were tightly clustered around adjacent brackets. One tracker showed approximately 78–79°F at 43.5–44%, while another had 80–81°F at 34.5–41.7% [9][10][11]. This indicates a 1–3°F range of uncertainty rather than a decisive market signal [9][10][11]. Market settlement was station- and source-specific. Polymarket rules cited routine METAR observations from William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU). Kalshi was described as using the Houston/Hobby climate summary (CLIHOU) [10][11].
A final verified observed high temperature remains unestablished. Available search results primarily provide forecasts and market prices. They do not establish a final verified observed high for the completed day [9][10][5][12][13]. Therefore, 78–79°F should be treated as the best pre-settlement estimate, not a confirmed official observation [9][10][5][12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1Weather Today for George Bush Intercontinental Houston Airport, TX | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3Houston Weather Friday, November 13, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
- 4ZFP from KHGXkamala.cod.edu
- 5Khou26uspest.org
- 6Houston weather: Sun stays for Friday; late-weekend rain brings low flood chances | FOX 26 Houstonfox26houston.com
- 7Sunshine returns to Houston before Sunday storm chances risehoustonchronicle.com
- 8ABC13 Weather Watch: Strong thunderstorms with heavy rain likely Sunday - ABC13 Houstonabc13.com
- 9Houston High Temperature Market for November 13 | Lines.comlines.com
- 10Highest temperature in Houston on November 13? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
- 11Houston temperature markets: Hobby Airport is the settlement stationtexaspredictions.com
- 12National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 13Houston, TX Weather History | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 November 13, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 34.0% to 47.0%
Outcome: 81° or above
What happened: The 13.0 percentage point spike in the "81° or above" outcome was primarily driven by traditional weather forecasts, specifically AccuWeather's prediction for November 13, 2026, which indicated a "RealFeel 82°" for George Bush Intercontinental [1]. This forecast directly supported the higher temperature outcome. While unusually warm November days in Houston have historically generated significant social media engagement [2], no specific social media activity or viral narrative directly preceding or coinciding with this particular price movement on November 13, 2026, was identified. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price spike.
📈 November 12, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 36.0%
Outcome: 81° or above
What happened: The primary driver of the 30.0 percentage point spike was a pervasive social-media-catalyzed narrative of unseasonable November warmth in Houston. This narrative, stemming from Houston's recent record-setting warm years and amplified across platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok, was highlighted by local news, fostering an expectation of higher-than-average temperatures [2]. This sentiment likely prompted market participants to bet on the "81° or above" outcome for November 13, 2026, despite official NWS forecasts predicting cooler highs of 72-76°F [3]. Social media activity, in the form of this persistent narrative, appeared to coincide with the price move, acting as a primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Houston's highest temperature for "today" falls within the specific range of the purchased contract, and NO if it falls outside that range. While the specific expiration date is not detailed, the market pertains to "today's" temperature. Special conditions allow for delayed expiration or resolution to the last fair price if material data errors or data unavailability occur, with external "Final" statuses not guaranteeing error-free data.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81° or above | $0.51 | $0.50 | 47% |
| 79° to 80° | $0.42 | $0.59 | 45% |
| 77° to 78° | $0.09 | $0.96 | 9% |
| 75° to 76° | $0.05 | $0.97 | 4% |
| 73° to 74° | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 72° or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market strongly anticipates a high temperature of 79°F or above in Houston on November 13, 2026, with 92% combined probability. Traders are currently split between the 79°-80° range (45%) and 81° or above (47%). Recent activity shows a slight trend towards warmer conditions, with the "81° or above" category gaining probability while the 79°-80° range has seen a decrease.
5. Trust Index
Integrity risk· Resolution quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score75Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score32High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do historical November temperature readings compare between Houston's Hobby (KHOU) and Intercontinental (IAH) airports?
| KHOU November Temperature vs IAH | Warmer than IAH [1][2] |
|---|---|
| IAH Maximum Temperatures | Slightly lower than KHOU [1][2] |
| KHOU Historical November 13 Highs | Generally in the upper 70s to low 80s °F [1][2] |
Houston's Hobby Airport (KHOU) consistently records warmer November temperatures than Intercontinental (IAH) [1][2]. IAH is situated approximately 15 to 20 miles northwest of KHOU, residing in less developed terrain, and typically reports slightly lower maximum temperatures compared to Hobby [1][2].
The urban heat island effect causes KHOU to be warmer in November. This phenomenon, where urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas, explains the higher temperatures at the KHOU urban location compared to IAH Intercontinental [1][2]. Consequently, historical November 13 highs based at KHOU, generally ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s °F, are considered the more relevant analog for this specific market [1][2].
7. What is the consensus forecast for Houston's November 13, 2026 high temperature across leading models like the GFS and ECMWF?
| Leading Market Bucket | 79 80°F [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Probability for 79-80°F | 46% to 56% [1][2][3] |
| Practical Point Forecast | Approximately 80°F [1][2][4][3] |
Traditional models offer no consensus for Houston's November 2026 high. Leading meteorological models, such as the GFS and ECMWF, do not provide a unified forecast for Houston's high temperature on November 13, 2026. Instead, prediction market data offers insights into this long-range forecast [1][2][3]. The highest temperature on this date is most likely to fall within the 79-80°F range, with current snapshots indicating a probability between 46% and approximately 56% for this specific temperature bucket [1][2][3]. The main alternative temperature range, 77-78°F, currently holds about a 38% probability in the Frenzy snapshot [1][2][3].
Prediction market data suggests a high of approximately 80°F. A practical point forecast derived from this market data indicates a high temperature of approximately 80°F, with a reasonable consensus band of 78-80°F, clearly favoring the 79-80°F bin [1][2][4][3]. For settlement purposes, Kalshi's market rule specifies that the maximum temperature recorded at Houston (CLIHOU), as reported by The Weather Company, will be used [2]. For long-range predictions such as this, prediction markets are considered more directly informative than traditional long-range model forecasts, although their probabilities are not equivalent to official meteorological ensemble means [1][2][3].
Sources (4)
- 1Highest temperature in Houston on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Highest temperature in Houston on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
8. What meteorological catalysts could cause the late-weekend weather front to accelerate or delay its arrival in Houston before November 13, 2026?
| Probability of 75-78°F (accelerated front) | 46% combined probability [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Market probability for 77-80°F | 84% probability mass [1][3] |
| Market probability for 79-80°F (delayed front) | ~49-50.5% [2] |
Meteorological factors determine the Houston weather front's arrival timing. Several catalysts could either accelerate or delay the late-weekend weather front's arrival in Houston before November 13, 2026. Factors that could lead to an earlier arrival include a deeper and faster upper-level trough over the Plains, a stronger jet stream core, or a sharper cold air mass situated behind the front. Conversely, a weaker trough, a slower front speed resulting from reduced temperature contrast, stronger prefrontal southwesterly winds enhancing warm air advection, or earlier cloud cover reducing radiative heating are all conditions that could delay the front's passage [1][2].
Accelerated fronts could cap temperatures, impacting market predictions. Should acceleration catalysts such as a deeper/faster upper-level trough, a stronger jet stream core, or a sharper cold air mass materialize, the weather front would pass through Houston earlier. This would likely cap the high temperature for November 13, 2026, at 75-78°F, a range that currently holds approximately 46% combined probability in prediction markets [1][2]. The market's relatively tight distribution, with 84% of the probability mass concentrated between 77-80°F, suggests the forecast expectation for the front's passage through Houston is mid-to-late Friday, November 13 [1][3].
Delayed fronts could raise temperatures, reflected in market odds. Conversely, catalysts that delay the front's passage, including a weaker trough, slower front speed due to reduced temperature contrast, stronger southwesterly prefrontal winds, or earlier cloud cover, would tend to postpone its arrival. Such delays could shift the high temperature toward 81°F+ or keep it within the 79-80°F range [1][2]. An outcome of 81°F+ is currently priced at only 2% in prediction markets, while the 79-80°F range is priced by Kalshi at approximately 49-50.5% as of November 12-13, 2026 [1][2].
9. What is the historical difference between the daily high reported in the official CLIHOU summary and the peak temperature from METAR observations at Hobby Airport?
| Maximum temperature difference (CLIHOU vs METAR) | Approximately 1°F [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Contributing factors to variation | Rounding, data processing methods, and daily maximum observation determination [1][2] |
| CLIHOU official daily high basis | Station's observed temperature record [1][2] |
Official and METAR daily high temperatures at Hobby Airport can vary. The official daily high temperature reported in the CLIHOU summary for Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) can vary from the peak METAR reading by up to approximately 1°F [1][2]. The CLIHOU summary provides the official daily high, derived from the station's observed temperature record [1][2]. In contrast, METAR observations for KHOU are reported hourly or more frequently, with their daily high determined as the maximum value among these discrete reports [1][2]. This discrepancy is evident in reported values from sources like The Weather Company compared to METAR observations [1][2].
Differences in methodology and processing cause the temperature variation. The observed variation, despite expectations for close alignment, is attributed to several factors [1][2]. These factors include differences in rounding practices, specific data processing methods, and the distinct methodologies used to determine the daily maximum observation from each source [1][2].
10. What has been the range and 30-year average high temperature recorded at Hobby Airport on November 13th, based on historical climate normals?
| Historical Daily High Range | 26–86°F [1] |
|---|---|
| Climatological Normal High | 74°F [2][1] |
| Record High Temperature | 86°F (in 2005) [2] |
Historical daily high temperatures at Hobby Airport range from 26°F to 86°F [1]. The record high temperature recorded on November 13th was 86°F in 2005 [2]. The lowest maximum temperature recorded for this date was 26°F, which occurred in 1932 [2], establishing a 60°F span for the historical daily high-temperature range [1].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Initial bracket probabilities are influenced by pre-market and overnight forecast updates [1][2]. For November 13, AccuWeather projected a 79°F high at George Bush Intercontinental Airport, with abundant sunshine and 1% precipitation probability [3]. FOX 26 anticipated a mostly sunny Friday, with highs in the upper 70s and a cool night in the low 50s, preceding a weekend front [4]. Market snapshots showed 80–81°F priced at 41.7% and 78–79°F at 31% in one instance, with about $19,000 traded. Another snapshot priced 78–79°F at 43.5% versus 80–81°F at 34.5% [1][5].
Friday morning-to-afternoon routine observations at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU) will determine whether the peak temperature remains 78–79°F or reaches 80–81°F [1]. Clear skies, sunshine, and a warm afternoon represent bullish catalysts for warmer brackets [6]. Conversely, an earlier-than-expected front, increased cloud cover, or cooler observed temperatures act as bearish catalysts [6]. Current forecasts specifically support sunshine on Friday and a later weekend front, not a Friday frontal passage [6][4].
Final settlement occurs upon publication of the first routine observation or at the market deadline on November 14 [1][2]. The Houston temperature contract settles on the highest routine METAR temperature at KHOU, excluding SPECI observations, converted from Celsius to Fahrenheit and assigned to a rounded whole degree bracket [1][5]. A pre-settlement estimate places the high at approximately 79°F, with 78–79°F and 80–81°F as the principal competing outcomes [3][1][5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (6)
- 1Highest temperature in Houston on November 13? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
- 2Kalshi Weather Markets: Temperature, Snow and Hurricanesnextpredict.io
- 3Weather Today for George Bush Intercontinental Houston Airport, TX | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 4Houston weather: Sun stays for Friday; late-weekend rain brings low flood chances | FOX 26 Houstonfox26houston.com
- 5Houston High Temperature Market for November 13 | Lines.comlines.com
- 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTHOU-26NOV11-T83: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTHOU-26NOV11-T76: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTHOU-26NOV11-B82.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTHOU-26NOV11-B80.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTHOU-26NOV11-B78.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
