Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The market considers a high temperature of 70° to 71°F in Los Angeles on November 13, 2026, likely at 56.0%, despite National Weather Service forecasts for the resolution site indicating highs of 72°F or mid-70s. The model assigns this outcome a lower probability of 39.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
News reports on November 11, 2026, indicating an end to a regional warm spell, appear to be the primary driver of recent price action. This development is cited as the cause for a 9.0 percentage point drop in the contract for a "72° to 73°" high temperature. The repricing away from warmer outcomes created a cascading effect across adjacent temperature markets.
The subsequent 8.0 percentage point spike in this contract on November 13, from 25.0% to 33.0%, was a direct consequence of that shift. As traders priced in the cooler trend, capital rotated into lower temperature brackets. While National Weather Service forecasts remained in the 72°F to 75°F range, a separate AccuWeather forecast for a 70°F high brought the expected temperature closer to this contract's range. This move provided fundamental support for the upward repricing.
- Market favors 70-71° given AccuWeather's 70°F forecast and 71°F normal high.
- NWS point forecast explicitly listed 72°F for downtown, suggesting 72-73° is undervalued.
- Lower ranges like 68-69° appear inconsistent with NWS predictions of 72°F or mid-70s.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68° to 69° | 38.0% | 22.8% | NWS forecasts consistently show Downtown Los Angeles temperatures of 72°F or higher for the date. |
| 67° or below | 4.0% | 4.7% | All NWS forecasts for Downtown Los Angeles indicate high temperatures are significantly above this range. |
| 72° to 73° | 9.0% | 19.4% | The NWS point forecast specifically listed a maximum of 72°F for Downtown Los Angeles. |
| 74° to 75° | 1.0% | 12.3% | NWS tabular summary reported a downtown high of 75°F, and Zone Forecast predicted mid-70s. |
| 70° to 71° | 56.0% | 39.0% | NWS forecasts for Downtown Los Angeles indicate high temperatures are generally above this range. |
Current Context
Los Angeles weather forecasts for November 13, 2026, indicate highs in the mid-70s with rain. AccuWeather projected a 70°F high at LAX, with an 84% precipitation probability and afternoon showers [1]. The NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard 2:52 p.m. PST Nov. 12 point forecast listed 72°F downtown and 73°F at LAX, with 12-hour precipitation probabilities of 60% at both locations, rising to 80% in the subsequent period [2]. A published NWS tabular summary reported a downtown high of 75°F and a 70% precipitation probability for both nighttime and daytime [3]. Local reports described downtown highs in the mid-70s, a 70% rain probability, and a stronger rain event from Friday evening into Saturday morning [4][5].
Prediction markets show varied probabilities for specific temperature thresholds. Lumina, at 3:48 a.m. ET, indicated probabilities of 64% for above-68°F, 41% for above-69°F, and 20% for above-70°F [6]. Robinhood presented higher probabilities, showing 87% for above-67°F, 68% for above-68°F, and 46% for above-69°F [7].
Sources (8)
- 1Weather Tomorrow for Los Angeles International Airport, CA | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3National Weather Service Los Angeles Tabular Forecast: 70 Percent Rain Chance for Downtown Los Angeles on November 13 | GSM Globalgsmglobalnews.com
- 4L.A. Heat Ends After Veterans Day; Rain Friday, Big Swell Saturday | The Los Angeles Heraldthelosangelesherald.com
- 5Downtown LA Weather Forecast Rain Arrives After One More Warm Dayhoodline.com
- 6Los Angeles Daily Temperature High on November 13, 2026? | Lumina Marketsluminamarkets.com
- 7Climate Daily High Temperature Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 8Highest Temperature in Los Angeles on November 13? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 November 13, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 18.0% to 9.0%
Outcome: 72° to 73°
What happened: No specific social media activity was documented as a driver for this price movement. The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "72° to 73°" outcome was likely traditional news reports issued on November 11, 2026 [1]. These reports indicated an end to a warm spell and a transition to cooler, rainy weather for November 13, 2026, with forecasts for "70 Percent Rain Chance" [1]. This information would have led market participants to anticipate lower temperatures, reducing the perceived probability of the "72° to 73°" outcome in favor of "71° or below" [2]. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the highest temperature in Los Angeles on November 13, 2026, falls within the specific temperature range defined by the contract (e.g., "67° or below"), and NO if it falls outside that range. The maximum payout date for this market is November 14, 2026. If a material error is identified in the initial temperature publication, resolution may be delayed until corrected data is available or the expiration date, whichever comes first; if no data is available, markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70° to 71° | $0.56 | $0.45 | 56% |
| 68° to 69° | $0.38 | $0.63 | 38% |
| 72° to 73° | $0.09 | $0.93 | 9% |
| 67° or below | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
| 74° to 75° | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 76° or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion for the highest temperature in Los Angeles on November 13, 2026, indicates a strong consensus among traders for temperatures between 68°F and 71°F, which collectively account for 94% of the probabilities. While the 70°F to 71°F range is the most favored at 56%, there's a notable recent shift with the 68°F to 69°F range gaining 11 points to reach 38%. Traders strongly argue against temperatures outside this core range, as all other possibilities, including those 72°F or above or 67°F or below, hold less than 10% probability each.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score75Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score29Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) long-range weather models compare in their forecasts for the storm system expected in Los Angeles around November 13, 2026?
| NWS High Forecast | mid-70s (LA County Inland Coast) [1] |
|---|---|
| Market Favorite Temperature | 70°-71° (60% probability) [2][3] |
| Day-over-day Cooldown | Approximately 7° compared to Nov 12 [4][1] |
European and American models generally agree on a storm-cooled high. No explicit high-temperature values for Los Angeles on November 13, 2026, were found directly from the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) models [1][2]. However, the National Weather Service (NWS) blended forecast and market consensus indicate that both long-range models generally concur on a high temperature in the low-to-mid 70s range, reflecting a storm-cooled environment [1][2]. The primary uncertainty concerns a few degrees of spread regarding the exact peak temperature [1][2]. The NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Zone Forecast, issued late on November 11, 2026, specifically predicted showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms on the morning of November 13. Highs for LA County Inland Coast (Downtown LA) were forecasted to be in the mid-70s, accompanied by southwest winds around 15 mph and a 60% chance of precipitation [1].
Market sentiment solidified around a cooler temperature range. The Kalshi market for 'Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 13, 2026?' predominantly favored 70°-71° with a 60% probability [2][3][4]. This implied that the resolution site, Downtown LA (CLILAX), would likely experience the cooler end of the NWS mid-70s zone forecast [1][2]. Market sentiment further strengthened between November 12 and 13, with the probability for the 70°-71° range increasing from 49% to 64% [5][3][4]. This convergence suggested that model guidance regarding the storm timing was becoming clearer [5][3][4]. Overall, the storm system on November 13 is anticipated to cause approximately a 7-degree day-over-day cooldown compared to the November 12, 2026 market, which had favored 77°-78° [4][1].
Sources (5)
- 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 2Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Weather Markets | PropTideproptide.io
- 5Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
7. What does the climatological record for Los Angeles (1991-2020) indicate for the distribution of high temperatures on November 13?
| Normal High Temperature (Nov 13, LAX) | Approximately 71°F (1991–2020 period) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Highest Probability Temperature Range | 70°–71°F (60% probability) [1][5][6][7] |
| Probability for 72°–73°F | 18% [1] |
The normal high temperature for November 13 in Los Angeles is 71°F. The climatological record for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) from 1991 to 2020 indicates that the normal high temperature on November 13 is approximately 71°F [1][2][3][4]. This figure aligns with market data showing a modal range of 70°–71°F, and typical November maximum normals for LAX, which generally fall between 70–73°F during the early-to-mid part of the month [1][2][3][4]. The highest probability for high temperatures on this specific date lies within the 70°–71°F range [1][5][6][7].
Market probabilities favor a 70°–71°F high for November 13, 2026. For November 13, 2026, market analysis of the highest temperature outcome shows the 70°–71°F range as the most probable, with a 60% likelihood [1][5][6][7]. Additional probabilities for other temperature ranges include 18% for 72°–73°F, 16% for 68°–69°F, 2% for 74°–75°F, 2% for 67°F or below, and 1% for 76°F or above [1].
These temperature probabilities are consistent with historical climatology. The calculated probabilities, particularly the low upper-tail probabilities for higher temperatures such as 74°–75°F (2–3%), are consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological record [8]. The National Weather Service (NWS) LAX climate reports also base their climate data on the same 1991–2020 normal period [4].
Sources (8)
- 1Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2WEST PALM BEACHweather.gov
- 3NAPLESweather.gov
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 7Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on Jul 10, 2026? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 8Weather Markets | PropTideproptide.io
8. How will the forecast timing of cloud cover and onshore flow (sea breeze) on November 13, 2026 influence whether the daily high temperature is set in the morning versus the afternoon?
| Forecast for November 13, 2026 | 70°-71° [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Prior day high (November 12, 2026) | 76° or below [2] |
| Prior day low (November 12, 2026) | 61°-62° [3] |
For November 13, 2026, the high temperature timing depends on marine layer presence. The market currently favors a high temperature between 70 ° and 71 ° for this date [1][2]. The timing of this daily high is significantly influenced by the forecast timing of cloud cover and onshore flow [1]. Specifically, the presence or absence of the marine layer, which consists of a shallow layer of cool, moist air and low cloud cover, directly determines if the daily high is set earlier or later [4].
Marine layer presence determines if warming occurs early or late. When the marine layer is present, it caps warming, leading to the daily high temperature being set earlier in the morning or early afternoon, under persistent cloud cover and early onshore flow [4]. Conversely, if the marine layer is absent, temperatures tend to be higher, with the daily high occurring later in the afternoon as skies clear and onshore flow is delayed [4]. Odds for November 13 have remained steady over the last 24 hours, indicating no material changes in the forecast for cloud cover and onshore flow, which supports a stable high around 70 ° [1].
Prior day's weather suggests marine layer influence continuing for November 13. The weather pattern from the prior day, November 12, 2026, further supports this outlook; a high of '76 ° or below' and a low of 61 °-62 ° suggests a cool, marine-layer-influenced pattern carrying into November 13 [2][3]. This pattern is consistent with the 70 °-71 ° forecast for the 13th, and the high is likely to be set in the afternoon as clouds dissipate, unless early onshore flow prevents a later peak [1][2][3].
9. What are the key differences between routine METAR observations and SPECI reports for KLAX, and how might this distinction affect the market's final resolution?
| METAR Reporting Frequency | Hourly [1] |
|---|---|
| Temperature Change Triggers SPECI | No [1] |
| SPECI Effect on Max Temperature Market | Small [1] |
METARs are routine hourly reports; SPECIs are unscheduled special updates. Routine METAR observations are hourly aviation weather reports, while SPECI reports are unscheduled special reports issued only when specific criteria are met between hourly reports [1]. The criteria for a SPECI involve significant changes in wind, visibility, precipitation, and low cloud layers [1][2][3]. Notably, a change in temperature alone is not a listed trigger for a SPECI report [1][2][3].
SPECI reports have minimal impact on maximum temperature market resolution. For prediction markets, such as "Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 13, 2026?" [4], the official daily climate report (CLILAX) aggregates both METARs and any SPECIs that occur [1][5][6]. While a SPECI's temperature would be included if it represents the daily maximum, the practical effect of SPECI reports on the market's maximum temperature resolution is considered small [1][5][6]. This is primarily because temperature change itself does not trigger a SPECI. Traders should verify against the official daily report, which resolves in 2-degree buckets, rather than relying solely on hourly METARs [1][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 13 OBSERVED TEXT PRODUCTSdownload.aopa.org
- 2AMC and GM to Part-MET — Issue 1, Amendment 2easa.europa.eu
- 3PERATURAN KEPALA BADAN METEOROLOGI, KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA NOMOR: KEP.001 TAHUN 2009jdih.bmkg.go.id
- 4Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on Jul 10, 2026? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6Los Angeles Weather on Oct 7, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
10. How have daily high temperature readings historically differed between the official stations at LAX (KLAX) and Downtown Los Angeles (USC) during mid-November?
| Mid-November Temp Comparison | Downtown LA (USC) typically exceeds LAX [1] |
|---|---|
| LAX Temperature Trend | Exhibits a slight warming trend in recent years [1] |
| LAX Mid-November Highs | Mode of 70-71°F, 94% probability of 68-73°F [2][1] |
Downtown Los Angeles typically records higher mid-November temperatures than coastal LAX. During mid-November, daily high temperature readings at the Downtown LA (USC) station generally exceed those at the coastal LAX station [1]. This difference becomes more pronounced on clear, dry days when the marine layer recedes inland. The urban heat island effect contributes to warmer readings in Downtown Los Angeles, whereas LAX's coastal position provides moderation through the marine layer and ocean surface temperatures, keeping its readings generally lower on sunny days [1].
LAX shows a slight warming trend, yet typically remains cooler. In recent years, LAX has exhibited a slight warming trend in temperatures, influenced by urban heat island effects and global warming [1]. However, coastal moderation continues to generally keep LAX readings below those of Downtown Los Angeles on sunny days [1]. The market's implied distribution for LAX high temperatures for mid-November, with a mode of 70-71°F and approximately a 94% probability of 68-73°F, aligns with typical mid-November highs in the low 70s [2][1].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Weather forecasts for November 13 indicated varied outcomes. AccuWeather’s LAX forecast showed a high of 70°F, a low of 61°F, 84% precipitation probability, and a 70°F forecast versus a 72°F historical average [1]. The NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard forecast a downtown Los Angeles maximum of 72°F and Los Angeles International Airport maximum of 73°F for November 13, with approximately 60–80% precipitation probabilities depending on the period [2]. Climate benchmarks for November 13 include a 71.1°F 1991–2020 average high and a 74°F downtown normal high in another almanac [3][4].
Prediction market prices showed divergence across venues and timestamps. Lumina reported 64% for above 68°F, 41% above 69°F, and 20% above 70°F early November 13; Robinhood later displayed 87% above 67°F, 68% above 68°F, and 46% above 69°F [5][6]. A separate range market showed leading outcomes around 68–69°F and 70–71°F, with 70–71°F at 44% and 68–69°F at 43% [7]. This indicates a close market around the upper-60s to low-70s rather than a high-confidence single number [7]. The settlement methodology differs; Lumina and Robinhood referenced Weather Underground daily observations for KLAX, while the Lines market referenced routine METAR observations and excluded SPECI reports [5][8][7][9].
Bullish catalysts for a higher high include residual warm-sector effects, delayed clearing or local offshore flow, and afternoon observations exceeding 70°F [1][2][10][11][7]. Bearish catalysts include rain/cloud cover, marine air, stronger onshore flow, and a high that peaks near the morning or early-afternoon forecast range [1][2][10][11][7]. The practical timeline involves overnight-to-morning observations to establish initial tracking, with midday clearing and afternoon maximum temperature being decisive; market resolution typically occurs after midnight based on official daily observation or specified METAR/Weather Underground records [2][5][8][7][9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1Weather Tomorrow for Los Angeles International Airport, CA | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3Daily Normal Temperatures for Downtown Los Angeles, Californialaalmanac.com
- 4Los Angeles November 13 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
- 5Los Angeles Daily Temperature High on November 13, 2026? | Lumina Marketsluminamarkets.com
- 6Climate Daily High Temperature Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 7Highest Temperature in Los Angeles on November 13? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 8November 13, 2026: Los Angeles Temperature at 4 AM CT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 9November 13, 2026: Los Angeles Daily Temperature Low November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 10Hourly weather tomorrow in Studio City - Foreca.netforeca.net
- 11South Los Angeles, CA Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHLAX-26NOV11-T90: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHLAX-26NOV11-T83: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHLAX-26NOV11-B89.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHLAX-26NOV11-B87.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHLAX-26NOV11-B85.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
