Short Answer

The highest temperature in Philadelphia on November 13, 2026, is expected to range between 51° and 52°, with the market pricing this outcome at 90.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The probability in this market collapsed as weather forecasts for November 13, 2026, solidified around a high temperature significantly colder than the contract's likely threshold. Multiple weather reports converged on a much cooler outlook. CBS Philadelphia projected a high of 45°F, while NBC10 forecast temperatures in the 40s. Weather Underground provided specific local forecasts of 43°F to 45°F.
As the resolution date arrived, these consistent, cold forecasts drove the market price down. Traders priced in the high likelihood that the actual temperature would fall short of the level required for a "YES" outcome. The contract fell from 42.0% on November 12 to just 1.0% on November 13. The high volume accompanying this final drop, with nearly 7,000 contracts traded at the 1.0% level, shows strong market conviction in the colder weather outcome. The broader forecast context, which included gusty winds, feels-like temperatures in the 30s, and a chance of snow flurries, reinforced the negative sentiment.
  • 51° to 52° holds dominant probability, driven by an early 51°F recorded high.
  • Market probabilities for 51-52° spiked 47pp, concentrating mass around this range.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
49° to 50° 1.0% 1.0% No specific justification is provided in the source for this outcome.
51° to 52° 90.0% 89.9% No specific justification is provided in the source for this outcome.
53° to 54° 6.0% 6.1% No specific justification is provided in the source for this outcome.
46° or below 1.0% 1.0% No specific justification is provided in the source for this outcome.
47° to 48° 1.0% 1.0% No specific justification is provided in the source for this outcome.

Current Context

Early forecasts for November 13, 2026 predicted cold, windy conditions. CBS Philadelphia projected a high of 45°F and a low of 43°F, with gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph and feels-like temperatures in the 30s; some wet snowflakes were possible later in the day [1]. NBC10 similarly forecast Friday temperatures in the 40s, with gusts reaching 30–35 mph and feels-like temperatures also in the 30s, noting a chance of snow showers or flurries in Pennsylvania suburbs into the evening [2]. Weather Underground’s specific forecasts included a high of 45°F for Northwest Philadelphia and 43°F for Upper North Philadelphia, where approximately 0.34 inches of rain were expected [3][4]. The Pennsylvania Flyover also listed Philadelphia at 43°F high and 37°F low, with rain [5]. Prior severe weather on Thursday, November 12, included tornadoes in New Castle County, DE, and Burlington County, NJ, alongside hail in Pennsylvania suburbs [2].
Prediction markets and early live data pointed to a higher actual temperature. The National Weather Service Regional Weather Roundup reported Philadelphia at 50°F with light rain and fog at 12:00 AM EST on Friday, November 13, 2026, marking the highest live reading observed so far that day [6]. Groundhog.markets, as of 07:23 UTC on November 13, 2026, noted a high of 51°F recorded at KPHL, with a median forecast high of 47.7°F for the remainder of the day (spread 45.0–50.8°F across nine forecasts) and a greater than 98% chance of rain expecting 0.34 inches [7]. The Kalshi market indicated a market-weighted high near 50°F, with 39% probability for 49–50°F and 30% for 51–52°F [8][9]. Separately, the Robinhood/Forecastex prediction market for the Philadelphia daily high, which resolves on Weather Underground KPHL station data, implied a final high of 50°F [10]. For historical context, the KPHL almanac shows a record high of 74°F (1902) and a record low of 23°F (2019) for this date [3][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1No more severe threats in Philadelphia, but there's a chance of wintry weather Friday. Here's the forecast. - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com
  2. 2Tornadoes touch down in Del. and NJ, chances for snow Friday – NBC10 Philadelphianbcphiladelphia.com
  3. 3Northwest Philadelphia, PA Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  4. 4Upper North Philadelphia, PA Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  5. 5Friday, November 13, 2026 - The Pennsylvania Flyoverthepennsylvaniaflyover.com
  6. 6https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus41.kphi.rwr.phi.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  7. 7Philadelphia, PA weather forecastgroundhog.markets
  8. 8Highest temperature in Philadelphia tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9Will the maximum temperature be 53-54° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  10. 10November 13, 2026: Philadelphia Daily Temperature High November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 13, 2026: 47.0pp spike

Price increased from 49.0% to 96.0%

Outcome: 51° to 52°

What happened: The 47.0 percentage point spike in the "51° to 52°" outcome was primarily driven by the apparent arrival of a warmer weather forecast revision [1]. This is consistent with weather markets repricing sharply as new model runs or data suggesting milder outcomes become available, especially as a 51°–52° outcome would be a milder-than-forecast surprise compared to existing public forecasts predicting highs in the mid-40s for November 13, 2026 [2]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor any named news article confirming the exact catalyst, was identified [1]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price movement.

📈 November 12, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 28.0% to 47.0%

Outcome: 51° to 52°

What happened: The 19.0 percentage point spike in the "51° to 52°" outcome was primarily driven by the significant severe weather event and unusually warm temperature recorded in Philadelphia on November 12, 2026 [3]. Despite forecasts for November 13, 2026, predicting much colder temperatures (around 45-50°F) after a cold front passage [2][4][5], market participants appear to have reacted to the previous day's high of 65°F, confirmed tornadoes, and widespread severe weather reports from major news outlets [3][6][7]. This aligns with prediction market behavior categories for abrupt probability repricings driven by breaking news cycles rather than confirmed information [8]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as drivers of this specific price movement.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Prediction Market Movers: Biggest Odds Changes Today | PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.net
  2. 2No more severe threats in Philadelphia, but there's a chance of wintry weather Friday. Here's the forecast. - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com
  3. 3https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/cd/cdus41.kphi.cli.phl.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  4. 4Northwest Philadelphia, PA Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  5. 5https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus41.kphi.rwr.phi.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  6. 6Tornadoes touch down in Del. and NJ, chances for snow Friday – NBC10 Philadelphianbcphiladelphia.com
  7. 7Thunderstorms hit Philadelphia and tornado confirmed in Delawareinquirer.com
  8. 8Highest temperature in Philadelphia tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For a specific contract in this market, a "Yes" resolution is triggered if the highest temperature in Philadelphia for the day falls within that contract's specified range, while a "No" resolution occurs if it falls outside that range. The Exchange, in its sole discretion, may delay expiration if a material error is found in the initial non-preliminary data publication, awaiting a corrected revision or the official Expiration Date. If no data becomes available, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi; a "Final" status on weather.com/kalshi does not guarantee error-free data.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
51° to 52° $0.98 $0.08 90%
53° to 54° $0.04 $0.97 6%
46° or below $0.01 $1.00 1%
47° to 48° $0.01 $1.00 1%
49° to 50° $0.01 $1.00 1%
55° or above $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Forecasts for Philadelphia on November 13, 2026, generally suggest a high temperature between 45°F and 52°F, which is notably below the normal high of 57°F for that date [1]. Prediction markets show Kalshi's highest odds for 49°–52°F, and Robinhood prices "Greater than 50" at 86¢, while specific forecasts from CBS Philadelphia and Weather Underground anticipate a high of 45°F with widespread showers and gusty winds [1].

Sources (1)
  1. 1No more severe threats in Philadelphia, but there's a chance of wintry weather Friday. Here's the forecast. - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 65 Caution

Integrity risk· Resolution quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score65Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
91Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
30High Risk

No suspicious activity on any screen

Settlement depends on interpretation — verify the rules and source before trading.

Resolution rules read: Ambiguous

Liquidity
69Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

6 contracts · worst first

53° to 54°5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

55° or above5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

47° to 48°16
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

49° to 50°28
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

46° or below47
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

51° to 52°75
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 4.9% of price over 16 traded bars

Move quality
83Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

6 contracts · worst first

53° to 54°69
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

49° to 50°72
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

55° or above78
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

51° to 52°83
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

46° or below—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

47° to 48°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40Ambiguous

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

6 contracts · worst first

51° to 52°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
53° to 54°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
46° or below40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
47° to 48°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
49° to 50°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
55° or above40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 39 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: 3.8c slippage (~4% of a 95c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

51° to 52°Primary40Market scoreLiquidity75Move quality83Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
75 · Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 4.9% of price over 16 traded bars

Move quality
83 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
53° to 54°5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality69Rule clarity40
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
69 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
46° or below40Market scoreLiquidity47Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
47 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
47° to 48°16Market scoreLiquidity16Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 16
Liquidity
16 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
49° to 50°28Market scoreLiquidity28Move quality72Rule clarity40
Why 28
Liquidity
28 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
72 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
55° or above5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality78Rule clarity40
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
78 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

6. How do the November 13, 2026 temperature forecasts from CBS Philadelphia and Weather Underground compare, and what factors drive their differences?

Initial Prediction Market Favorite49–50°F at 40% [1]
Subsequent Prediction Market Favorite51–52°F at 93% [2]
Example of Wind Chill Effect40°F high, 32°F feel due to wind (November 22, 2024 CBS Philadelphia forecast) [3]
Direct comparison of specific forecasts for November 13, 2026, is not possible. Specific daily temperature forecasts for that date from CBS Philadelphia and Weather Underground were not available in the search results [4][3][5][6][7][8][9]. Consequently, an analysis of how these two forecasting entities might differ in their predictions or the underlying factors driving any potential discrepancies cannot be conducted based on the provided information [4][3][5][6][7][8][9].
General factors often explain differences in local weather forecasts. Despite the absence of specific forecasts for the target date, variations in cloud timing, frontal or precipitation timing, wind and wind chill, and localized elevation or neighborhood effects are common drivers of discrepancies between different weather predictions [3]. For instance, a CBS Philadelphia forecast for November 22, 2024, predicted a high of 40°F but noted that it would feel like 32°F due to wind [3].
Prediction market data for November 13, 2026, showed fluctuating favored temperature ranges. The prediction market for Philadelphia's highest temperature on November 13, 2026, indicated shifting favored outcomes over time [1][2]. One snapshot initially showed 49–50°F as the favorite at 40%, followed by 51–52°F at 35% [1]. However, a subsequent market snapshot later favored 51–52°F at 93%, underscoring the time-sensitive nature of this market evidence rather than a static forecast [2]. It is important to note that the market's resolution depends on the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia by The Weather Company, which may employ different measurement definitions or locations compared to a general Weather Underground city forecast [1][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Windy and cold Friday in Philadelphia region with snow expected in Poconos. Here's the weather forecast. - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com
  4. 4Sunny skies with brisk, chilly conditions in Philadelphia area. Here's the weather forecast.cbsnews.com
  5. 5Severe storms possible Saturday in Philadelphia area. Here's the Weather forecast. - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com
  6. 6Above-freezing Friday in Philadelphia area; mostly sunny Valentine's weekend. Here's the forecast. - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com
  7. 7Mix of sun and clouds in Philadelphia Thursday with highs in the 60s, temps headed to 90 this weekend - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com
  8. 8Local Weather Forecast, News and Conditions | Weather Undergroundweatherunderground.com
  9. 9Local Weather Forecast, News and Conditions | Weather Undergroundweatherunderground.com
  10. 10Philadelphia Weather on Oct 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com

7. What evidence supports the prediction market consensus (Kalshi, Forecastex) for a high near 50°F, despite most local weather outlets forecasting mid-40s?

Predicted High TemperatureNear 50°F, 75% probability for 49–52°F (Prediction Market Consensus) [1]
Detailed Market Snapshot49–50°F at 40%, 51–52°F at 35% [1]
Settling Market Probability51–52°F at 93% with $18K volume (Philadelphia) [2][3]
Prediction markets strongly forecast a high temperature near 50°F in Philadelphia on November 13, 2026. The consensus indicates a high temperature for Philadelphia falling within the 49–52°F range, assigned a total quoted probability of 75% [1]. This specific prediction is further detailed by probabilities of 40% for 49–50°F and 35% for 51–52°F, collectively supporting a temperature close to 50°F [1].
Multiple market views and regional comparisons reinforce the mild temperature outlook for the date. A separate settling-market snapshot for Philadelphia shows a 93% probability for 51–52°F, representing a trading volume of $18K [2]. Additionally, a climate-category snapshot points to 51–52°F with a 62% probability and a trading volume of $7K [3]. Regional market data further suggests a relatively mild day across the Philadelphia area, with Washington, D.C., favoring 51–52°F, Newark leaning towards 49–50°F, and Trenton observed at either 47–48°F or 49–50°F in different snapshots [2][4][3].
Historical data from past markets offers context but is not directly applicable to this specific forecast. Although earlier resolved Philadelphia market pages for various October 2026 dates show settling points ranging from 64–65°F to 80–81°F, these are not directly relevant to the November 13, 2026 prediction [5][6][7][8][9]. However, these past market outcomes reflect potentially well-calibrated probabilities derived from real-money trades, demonstrating the market's predictive capabilities in general [5][6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4DimeTrades: Predict the Futureuat.dimetrades.com
  5. 5Philadelphia Weather on Oct 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6Philadelphia Weather on Oct 26, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  7. 7Philadelphia Weather on Oct 12, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  8. 8Philadelphia Weather on Oct 11, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  9. 9Philadelphia Weather on Oct 15, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com

8. How is the passage of the severe storm system on November 12 expected to influence wind speed and temperature patterns in Philadelphia on November 13, 2026?

Practical Temperature Estimate47°–52°F [1][2][3]
NWS Philadelphia High Forecastnear 47°F [3]
Wind ForecastNorth at 5–10 mph, gusts up to 20 mph [3]
Philadelphia anticipates a marked cool-down and northerly winds on November 13. Following the severe storm system on November 12, 2026, Philadelphia is expected to experience a marked cool-down and northerly, occasionally gusty winds on November 13 [1][2][3]. A practical temperature estimate for November 13 is approximately 47°–52°F [1][2][3]; the NWS Philadelphia forecast, issued November 12, 2026, specifically indicated a high near 47°F and a low near 36°F for that Friday [3].
Specific wind patterns and continued rain are also forecast. Post-storm winds were forecast from the north at 5–10 mph overnight, with gusts as high as 20 mph [3], and Friday was also forecast to remain rainy [3]. While the official point forecast for the high temperature is near 47°F, the Philadelphia November 13 temperature market showed 51°–52°F as the leading outcome in its category listing at 62%, suggesting an inclination towards the higher end of the practical estimate [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov

9. Which official weather station's data (e.g., KPHL) will be used for market resolution, and how has its historical data for mid-November compared to NWS forecasts?

Identified StationCLIPHL [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Market Settlement DateNov. 14, 2026 [8]
Odds for 49-50°F40% [8]
CLIPHL is the designated weather station for Philadelphia temperature markets. The official weather station identified for resolving markets concerning the highest temperature in Philadelphia, such as on November 13, 2026, is CLIPHL [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. However, an unresolved discrepancy exists regarding the definitive source for maximum temperature resolution [9][3]. While historical market rules consistently specify The Weather Company as the data provider [1][2][3][4][5][6][7], guidance issued on July 22, 2026, indicates that daily high/low markets are generally settled based on the final NWS Daily Climate Report [9].
The November 13, 2026 market has specific temperature predictions. The market, identified as KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV13, is scheduled to settle on November 14, 2026 [8]. Detailed odds for November 13, 2026, indicate a 40% chance for the highest temperature to be between 49–50°F [8]. Other probabilities include 35% for 51–52°F, 12% for 53–54°F, 6% for 47–48°F, and 2% each for temperatures of 46°F-or-below or 55°F-or-above [8].
No historical comparisons to NWS forecasts were available. The provided research did not contain information describing how CLIPHL's historical data for mid-November has compared to NWS forecasts. The research specifically did not include any historical data or comparative analyses related to this inquiry.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Philadelphia Weather on Oct 26, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2Philadelphia Weather on Oct 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  3. 3Philadelphia Weather on Oct 1, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  4. 4Philadelphia Weather on Oct 12, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  5. 5Philadelphia Weather on Oct 5, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6Philadelphia Weather on Oct 11, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  7. 7Philadelphia Weather on Oct 15, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  8. 8Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  9. 9Weather Markets | Kalshi Help Centerhelp.kalshi.com

10. How do the implied probabilities on Kalshi's bracketed market compare to the binary odds on Robinhood/Forecastex for the Nov 13 high temperature?

Kalshi Nov 13, 2026 Favorite Temperature Range49°-50° at 40% [1]
Kalshi Implied Probability (high >= 51°)Approximately 49% [1]
Robinhood/Forecastex Nov 13, 2026 PricesNot found [2]
Direct comparison to Robinhood/Forecastex is currently not feasible. This is due to the absence of specific binary prices for the November 13, 2026, high temperature on Robinhood/Forecastex in the retrieved sources [2]. However, Kalshi's implied cumulative probabilities, such as P(high >= 51°) approximately 49%, P(high >= 49°) approximately 97%, and P(high <= 48°) approximately 8%, serve as direct comparables for 'above X°' style contracts on platforms like Robinhood/Forecastex [1].
Kalshi's market identifies the 49°-50° range as the favorite. Specifically, Kalshi's KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV13 market currently shows this range with a 40% probability, followed by 51°-52° at 35%, and 53°-54° at 12% [1]. Earlier data for this market indicated a notable shift in sentiment, with the 51°-52° range previously being favored at 62% or even as high as 93% [3][4].
Robinhood/Forecastex typically offer threshold contracts for temperature events. These markets involve contracts that resolve as 'Yes' if the maximum temperature surpasses a predetermined Fahrenheit value [5]. The specific series for the high temperature event under consideration resolves on November 14, 2026 [5]. While prior editions, such as an October 13 market, traded around $50,000 in volume, specific binary prices for November 13, 2026, on Robinhood/Forecastex were not found [5][6][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2DimeTrades: Predict the Futureuat.dimetrades.com
  3. 3Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Philadelphia Weather on Oct 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6Philadelphia Weather on Oct 12, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Market probabilities for Philadelphia (KPHL) high temperatures on November 13, 2026, are influenced by an early recorded high of 51°F at 12:10 am [1]. Groundhog.markets reported this initial high, forecasting a median high of 47.7°F for the remainder of the day, with a spread from 45.0–50.8°F [1]. Kalshi's market priced 49–50°F at 39% (45¢) and 51–52°F at 30% (40¢), with the market opening at 12:00 am EST on November 13 [2]. Robinhood's prediction market indicated >50°F at 86¢, >51°F at 12¢, and >53°F at 9¢, suggesting bullish sentiment based on the early observed high and the upper range of the forecast spread [1][3].
Conversely, bearish catalysts include persistent cold air advection following severe storms on November 12, which produced tornadoes in New Castle County, DE, and Burlington County, NJ [1][4]. The forecast for November 13 includes rain all day and northwest winds gusting 25–35 mph, expected to keep feels-like temperatures in the 30s [1][5]. CBS Philadelphia forecast a high of 45°F and a low of 43°F, with gusty NW winds to 25 mph [5]. Some local forecasts, including Pennsylvania Flyover and Upper North Philly Weather Underground, projected highs of only 43°F [1][6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1Philadelphia, PA weather forecastgroundhog.markets
  2. 2Highest temperature in Philadelphia tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3November 13, 2026: Philadelphia Daily Temperature High November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4Tornadoes touch down in Del. and NJ, chances for snow Friday – NBC10 Philadelphianbcphiladelphia.com
  5. 5No more severe threats in Philadelphia, but there's a chance of wintry weather Friday. Here's the forecast. - CBS Philadelphiacbsnews.com
  6. 6Friday, November 13, 2026 - The Pennsylvania Flyoverthepennsylvaniaflyover.com
  7. 7Upper North Philadelphia, PA Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV11-T69: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV11-T62: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV11-B68.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV11-B66.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV11-B64.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)