Highest temperature in San Francisco on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
San Francisco's highest temperature on November 13, 2026, is likely to settle between 63° and 64°, with the market pricing this at 61.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Market pricing reflects a consensus of weather forecasts for November 13, 2026, which place the high temperature above the market's 59°F resolution threshold. The "YES" probability has traded in a narrow 50-61% range, consistent with multiple independent reports projecting highs in the low 60s. Forecasts from AccuWeather (62°F), Timeanddate (63°F), and others (61°F, 64°F) provide the fundamental support for the market's current 59% price.
The market's slight upward drift from a 54% open to its current level appears to be a direct pricing of this forecast data as it became available. A Timeanddate forecast updated on November 12 coincides with the market's opening period. The subsequent trading reflects high conviction in these figures, with no significant event or contrary forecast emerging to drive volatility. The overall sideways trend and relatively low total volume indicate a market that has priced in the available meteorological data without major disagreement among participants.
- 63° to 66° are the leading outcomes, consistent with AccuWeather and Timeanddate forecasts.
- Typical cool, fog-prone conditions and a strengthening El Niño likely suggest lower temperatures.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63° to 64° | 61.0% | 60.1% | San Francisco's historical average high temperature for November 13 is around 62-63°F. |
| 65° to 66° | 34.0% | 21.8% | Mid-60s temperatures are not uncommon for San Francisco in mid-November, especially with Indian Summer extensions. |
| 61° to 62° | 1.0% | 13.0% | Temperatures around 61-62°F are quite typical for San Francisco in mid-November. |
| 67° or above | 3.0% | 3.1% | Temperatures of 67°F or above are historically rare for San Francisco in mid-November. |
| 59° to 60° | 1.0% | 1.0% | Temperatures between 59-60°F are slightly below average for San Francisco in mid-November. |
Current Context
Forecasts for November 13, 2026, suggest temperatures in the low 60s. AccuWeather projects a high of 62°F for San Francisco International Airport, with rain tapering to showers, a 97% precipitation probability, and wind gusts up to 40 mph [1]. Timeanddate forecasts a high of 63°F and a low of 56°F, with heavy rain and an 83% chance of precipitation; this was updated on November 12, 2026, at 7:24 PM San Francisco time [2]. A separate forecast indicated a 61°F daytime high and 54°F overnight low [3]. Contemporary reporting cited a forecast high near 64°F [4].
Historical data indicates warmer potential, but current outlook is cooler. The November 13 climatological record high for the referenced downtown San Francisco station is 80°F, set in both 1933 and 1995 [5]. The 1991–2020 average high for this date is 64.7°F [5]. The variability across forecasts reflects differences in source and specific location or measurement methodologies [3].
Market resolution requires official station observations after the event. The operational event date is Friday, November 13, 2026 [6]. Resolution of prediction markets depends on official station observations rather than a forecast [6]. The authoritative final daily maximum temperature should be confirmed only after the observation window closes [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Weather Tomorrow for San Francisco International Airport, CA | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 2San Francisco, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 3Friday, November 13, 2026. San Francisco, CA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
- 4California coast braces for 35-foot waves and soaking stormsrollingout.com
- 5San Francisco November 13 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
- 6San Francisco November 13 High Temperature Market | Lines.comlines.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 November 13, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.0% to 38.0%
Outcome: 65° to 66°
What happened: The provided information does not contain any evidence of social media activity, specific traditional news announcements, or market structure factors that caused the 18.0 percentage point spike for the "65° to 66°" outcome. The primary driver appears to be the evolving weather forecasts and underlying climate conditions for November 13, 2026, which indicated a current estimated high around 64-65°F, close to the historical average of 64.7°F [1][2][3][4]. While a storm was moving in, reports linking unusual coastal warmth and record-shattering ocean temperatures to an extreme El Niño may have pushed expectations towards the higher end of the average range [5][6][7]. Therefore, social media was an irrelevant factor in this price movement based on the available data.
Sources (7)
- 1Weather Tomorrow for San Francisco International Airport, CA | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 2https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus46.ksto.rwr.ca.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 3Pleasanton 2026 Past Weather (California, United States) - Weather Sparkweatherspark.com
- 4San Francisco November 13 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
- 5California’s first major November storm arrives tonight. Here are the latest updatessfchronicle.com
- 6El Niño Drives Record-Shattering Ocean Heat off San Francisco Coast | KQEDkqed.org
- 7Coastal ocean temps break records as storm nears Bay Area | Weather | napavalleyregister.comnapavalleyregister.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if the highest temperature in San Francisco for the specified day falls within the chosen range, and "No" otherwise. If a material error is determined in the initial non-preliminary data publication, resolution may be held until a corrected revision or the Expiration Date. If no data is available by the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by the Exchange.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63° to 64° | $0.60 | $0.44 | 61% |
| 65° to 66° | $0.39 | $0.65 | 34% |
| 67° or above | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| 58° or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 59° to 60° | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 61° to 62° | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets indicate San Francisco's highest temperature on November 13, 2026, will likely fall in the 62-64°F range, with Lines.com and Polymarket pricing 62-63°F as the most probable outcome (52.5% and 47.5% implied probability, respectively) [1][2], and Kalshi favoring 63-64°F at approximately 60% [3]. Other forecasts from AccuWeather, timeanddate, and the National Weather Service predict highs around 62-64°F, with heavy rain and strong winds from a weakening Pacific Northwest storm expected to cap temperatures [4][5][6][1][7].
Sources (7)
- 1San Francisco November 13 High Temperature Market | Lines.comlines.com
- 2Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 13? - polycan.ccpolycan.cc
- 3Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Weather Tomorrow for San Francisco International Airport, CA | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 5San Francisco, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 6California coast braces for 35-foot waves and soaking stormsrollingout.com
- 7Forecast Discussion for MTR NWS Officesaratoga-weather.org
5. Trust Index
Integrity risk· Resolution quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score32High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do the leading European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) long-range models compare in their weather pattern forecasts for the U.S. West Coast in mid-November 2026?
| Leading Temp Outcome | 63-64°F (58%) [1] |
|---|---|
| Next Most Likely Temp | 65-66°F (20%) [1] |
| Third Most Likely Temp | 61-62°F (14%) [1] |
Direct comparison of long-range models remains unsupported by available research. The current research does not provide specific information comparing European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) long-range weather pattern forecasts for the U.S. West Coast in mid-November 2026. Furthermore, prediction markets for events such as the highest temperature in San Francisco on November 13, 2026, are resolved using the maximum temperature recorded at the San Francisco station CLISFO, as reported by The Weather Company, not directly from ECMWF or GFS outputs [2]. These market estimates are based on crowd or market sentiment rather than direct model output [3].
Prediction markets strongly favor a specific temperature range for San Francisco. For San Francisco on November 13, 2026, the leading outcome in the market for the highest temperature is 63–64°F, which is priced at 58% [1]. Other notable probabilities include 65–66°F at 20% and 61–62°F at 14% [1]. Outcomes below 59°F or above 66°F each carry only a 2% chance [1]. The market lean thus indicates a high near 63–64°F, with a plausible adjacent range of 61–66°F [1][2][3][4]. Confidence in these market intervals is considerably higher than for any claimed distinction between ECMWF and GFS forecasts [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
- 1Highest temperature in San Francisco on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Highest temperature in San Francisco on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
7. What does the 1991–2020 climatological record for downtown San Francisco indicate about the average and extreme high temperatures for November 13?
| Normal High Temperature (Nov 13) | ~58°F (1991-2020 normal) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Probability of Extreme High | 2% for 67°F or above [1][2] |
| Downtown SF All-Time November Highs | Low 70s [1][2] |
November 13 typically features cool, fog-prone conditions in San Francisco. Based on the 1991–2020 climatological record for downtown San Francisco, the normal high temperature for this day is estimated to be near 58°F [1][2]. While the exact 1991–2020 normal high specifically for November 13 was not explicitly stated in the retrieved sources, this ~58°F figure is considered the best available proxy, derived from market structure and pricing [3][1].
Record-breaking extreme high temperatures for November 13 are very unlikely. This assessment is supported by market analysis, which assigns a 2% probability to temperatures of 67°F or above [1][2]. Although downtown San Francisco's all-time November highs have been recorded in the low 70s, the specific all-time record high for November 13 was not explicitly provided in the retrieved sources [1][2][3].
8. What is the official NOAA forecast for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Fall 2026, and how do El Niño and La Niña historically impact Northern California's November temperatures?
| Probability of strong El Niño (JFM 2027) | 80% [1] |
|---|---|
| Niño-3.4 Temperature (Nov 12, 2026) | +2.5°C [2] |
| San Francisco Favored Temperature Range (Nov 13, 2026) | 63–64°F (58–60% implied probability) [3][4][5] |
NOAA confirms a strengthening El Niño likely continuing into 2027. On November 12, 2026, NOAA's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion confirmed an ongoing and strengthening El Niño, maintaining an El Niño Advisory [2]. There is an 80% chance of strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions continuing through January–March 2027 [1]. Significant positive temperature anomalies were reported in the Niño regions on November 12, 2026, with Niño-3.4 at +2.5°C, Niño-3 at +3.6°C, and Niño-1+2 at +4.4°C [2].
ENSO's historical impact on Northern California's November temperatures is not well-documented. According to the Sacramento NWS, the relationship between precipitation and ENSO patterns for Northern California is considered weak [6]. This indicates that any inferences regarding November temperatures based on ENSO should be approached with low confidence. Furthermore, the available information does not detail specific historical impacts of El Niño or La Niña on Northern California's November temperatures [6].
San Francisco prediction markets indicate favored November 2026 temperature ranges. On November 13, 2026, the San Francisco prediction market showed a favored temperature range of 63–64°F, with an implied probability of approximately 58–60% across various listings [3][4][5]. The next most likely temperature band identified by the market was 65–66°F [3][4][5].
Sources (6)
- 1Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussioncpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 3Highest temperature in San Francisco on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Highest temperature in San Francisco on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6ENSO Information for Northern Californiaweather.gov
9. Which official weather station's data will be used for market resolution, and how has its daily high on November 13 differed from other nearby San Francisco stations (e.g., SFO vs. Downtown) in recent years?
| Resolution Source | Weather Company maximum for San Francisco location code CLISFO [1] |
|---|---|
| Observation Date | November 13, 2026 [1] |
| Market Settlement Date | November 14, 2026 [2][3] |
The market resolution for San Francisco's high temperature uses specific weather data. The market for the highest temperature in San Francisco on November 13, 2026, will resolve using the Weather Company maximum recorded for the San Francisco location code CLISFO [1]. The market rules explicitly state that the final value will be derived from the Weather Company report for this specific location [1].
This market categorizes temperatures and settles the day after observation. It includes six distinct temperature buckets: 58 °F or below, 59 °–60 °F, 61 °–62 °F, 63 °–64 °F, 65 °–66 °F, and 67 °F or above [1]. This market is scheduled to settle on November 14, 2026, following the observation date of November 13, 2026 [2][3].
Historical temperature comparisons for the CLISFO station are not available. The provided research materials do not contain information on how the CLISFO station's daily high on November 13 has differed from other nearby San Francisco stations, such as SFO or Downtown, in recent years.
10. What atmospheric conditions, such as an 'atmospheric river' or an offshore wind event, could cause a significant deviation from the forecasted temperature in San Francisco on November 13, 2026?
| Favorite Temperature Outcome | 63–64°F (56–60%) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Primary Upside Alternative | 65–66°F (20%) [1][2] |
| Market Resolution Source | The Weather Company for San Francisco (CLISFO) maximum temperature [3] |
The available research does not contain information detailing specific atmospheric conditions that could cause significant temperature deviation. Specifically, there is no information regarding how phenomena such as an atmospheric river or an offshore wind event might impact San Francisco's forecasted temperature on November 13, 2026. The provided facts focus exclusively on prediction market expectations for temperature outcomes rather than meteorological phenomena.
Prediction markets currently favor a maximum temperature of 63-64°F for San Francisco on November 13, 2026. This outcome is the most probable, priced at approximately 56–60% according to market snapshots [1][2]. The primary alternative to this range is a temperature of 65–66°F, which is priced around 20% [1][2]. A maximum temperature of 67°F or higher is considered a less likely scenario, estimated at approximately 2% [1][2]. The resolution of these markets will be based on the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) by The Weather Company [3].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
AccuWeather forecast the Nov 13, 2026 high at 62°F with 97% precipitation probability and 0.68 inches of rain, alongside SW winds of 17 mph gusting to 40 mph and a Coastal Flood Advisory [1]. Timeanddate indicated 63/56°F with heavy rain (0.93 inches, 83% chance) for the same date [2]. The groundhog.markets median of 10 forecasts was 61.2°F high and 53.6°F low, with a source spread of 59.2-65.5°F and over 98% rain chance [3]. The Lines.com market reflected this, pricing 62-63°F at 52.5% [4]. Further bearish pressure came from a weakening Pacific Northwest storm, expected to generate 12-16 foot sneaker waves and cap temperatures [5][4]. The storm timeline included strong southerly winds with 35-45 mph gusts by late morning Friday, potentially reaching 50 mph over San Pablo Bay, with heavy rain forecast for San Francisco/Oakland around 10-11 AM [6].
Conversely, some models presented a bullish outlook. The IFS Ensemble assigned a 91% probability for a high at or above 66°F (mean 70.4°F) [5]. WeatherNext 2 gave a 61% probability for the same threshold (mean 66.3°F), and the NWS forecast offered a 56% probability (mean 66.0°F) for the high to be at or above 66°F [5]. This contrasted with other models such as IFS HRES (13% probability, mean 61.3°F), ICON (9% probability, mean 60.8°F), and the National Blend (28% probability, mean 64.0°F) for the high at or above 66°F [5]. Historically, the Nov 13, 2025 high at KSFO was 67°F, exceeding the 1991-2020 normal high of 65°F for that date [1]. The all-time record high for November 13 is 76°F, set in 1995 [1]. The market's key unknown was the storm's exact timing before the peak temperature reading [6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (6)
- 1Weather Tomorrow for San Francisco International Airport, CA | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 2San Francisco, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 3San Francisco, CA weather forecastgroundhog.markets
- 4San Francisco November 13 High Temperature Market | Lines.comlines.com
- 5High ≥ 66°F · San Francisco, CA — Weather Propsweatherprops.com
- 6California’s first major November storm arrives tonight. Here are the latest updatessfchronicle.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTSFO-26NOV11-T77: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTSFO-26NOV11-T70: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTSFO-26NOV11-B76.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTSFO-26NOV11-B74.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTSFO-26NOV11-B72.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
