Short Answer

The lowest temperature in New Orleans on November 13, 2026, will not be 55°F or above; multiple NWS forecasts and AccuWeather predict lows in the upper 40s to lower 40s following an Arctic front (32%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's probability collapsed from 21% to 1% following the release of definitive short-term weather forecasts for New Orleans on November 13, 2026. National Weather Service bulletins issued just after midnight projected a low of 49°F, with a zone forecast calling for lows in the "upper 40s." Other commercial forecasts from uscityweather and Foreca anticipated lows between 51°F and 54°F. This consensus drove the market price down, as the forecasts were consistently above the contract's apparent 47°F resolution threshold.
While an AccuWeather forecast for a low of 47°F offered a contrary data point, it was insufficient to counter the weight of the other projections. The market's sharp downward move reflects the consolidated view that the temperature would not fall to the level required for a "YES" resolution. Trading volume of over 840 contracts on November 12 indicates significant positioning ahead of these final forecasts. The subsequent price drop to near zero occurred on no volume, suggesting the market considered the outcome effectively settled once the new forecast data became public.
  • Temperatures of 53°F or above are favored by one NWS point forecast overnight low.
  • Multiple NWS tabular and AccuWeather forecasts project lower minimums of 47-49°F.
  • WDSU and NWS KLIX discussions suggest potential lows in the mid-to-lower 40s.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
46° or below 1.0% 1.4% WDSU forecasts "lower 40s" for Friday morning, and NWS KLIX projects "mid-40s" for Saturday.
55° or above 32.0% 25.3% An NWS point forecast suggests an overnight low near 55°F, with the current 10 AM observation at 56°F.
51° to 52° 19.0% 25.3% Outside deterministic model scope.
49° to 50° 8.0% 25.3% Outside deterministic model scope.
53° to 54° 65.0% 25.3% Outside deterministic model scope.

Current Context

Initial forecasts for November 13, 2026, placed New Orleans' lowest temperature in the upper 40s. The NWS tabular forecast, issued at 12:23 AM CST on Friday, November 13, projected a low of 49°F for New Orleans-Western Orleans (LAZ077) [1]. A concurrent NWS zone forecast for Western Orleans, issued at 12:21 AM CST, called for Friday night lows in the upper 40s [2]. AccuWeather's forecast for November 13 indicated a low of 47°F [3]. Commercial hourly forecasts from uscityweather and Foreca showed lows around 51-54°F for early Friday morning [4][5]. WDSU's November 12 report also projected Friday morning lows in the lower 40s [6]. The NWS Louisiana weather roundup at 10:00 AM CST confirmed clear, cool conditions, with New Orleans International Airport at 56°F, Slidell at 47°F, and Baton Rouge at 49°F [7]. High temperature forecasts for November 13 were consistent, with NWS projecting 69°F, AccuWeather 68°F, and commercial forecasts ranging 67-70°F [1][2][3][4][5]. The Kalshi maximum temperature market reflected these projections, with 68-69°F holding 59% probability and 70-71°F at 36% [8].
Regional forecasts suggest colder temperatures expected Saturday, influencing Kalshi market pricing. The NWS KLIX area forecast discussion from 5:52 PM CST on November 12 noted the strong Arctic front had pushed through. It forecast Saturday morning temperatures of mid-to-upper 30s north of I-10/12, with the Southshore cooling to the mid-40s [9]. WDSU's November 12 report also highlighted Saturday morning lows between 33-39°F, with patchy frost possible, especially in far northern Tangipahoa and Washington parishes [6]. The Kalshi prediction market for the lowest temperature in New Orleans on November 13 opened at 1:00 AM EST. The market priced the 49-50°F bucket highest at 24% (23¢), followed by 51-52°F at 16% (40¢), and 47-48°F at 13%. The 46°F or below bucket held 1%, while 55°F or above held 7% [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/state/la/laz090.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  2. 2https://www.bayoustateweather.com/data/laz077.txtbayoustateweather.com
  3. 3New Orleans, LA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  4. 4New Orleans Weather Friday, November 13, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
  5. 5Hourly weather forecast for New Orleans - Foreca.netforeca.net
  6. 6Temperatures tumbling into the weekend. Watching a potential Gulf coastal storm by Monday. - WDSUwdsu.com
  7. 7https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus44.klix.rwr.la.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  8. 8Highest temperature in New Orleans tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9New Orleans/Baton Rouge NWS Area Forecast Discussion (LIX) | Vertexvertexmaps.com
  10. 10Lowest temperature in New Orleans tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 53° to 54°

📈 November 13, 2026: 32.0pp spike

Price increased from 33.0% to 65.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 32.0 percentage point spike was the availability of specific weather forecast data for November 13, 2026. Hourly forecasts for New Orleans showed temperatures falling to roughly 53–54°F overnight and early morning, directly supporting the market's outcome [1][2]. This temperature range is also consistent with the climatological normal low of 53.5°F for that day [3][4]. As no social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified in the provided research, it appears to be irrelevant to this price movement.

Outcome: 55° or above

📈 November 12, 2026: 27.0pp spike

Price increased from 7.0% to 34.0%

What happened: The provided research does not support a 27.0 percentage point spike in the "Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Nov 13, 2026?" prediction market on November 12, 2026 [5][6]. The "27.0 figure" appears in seasonal temperature data contexts and is not a verified daily prediction market price movement [5][6]. Therefore, without evidence that this price movement occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, and social media activity is irrelevant as no such movement is confirmed.
Sources (6)
  1. 1New Orleans Weather Friday, November 13, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
  2. 2Kmsy26uspest.org
  3. 3New Orleans November 13 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
  4. 4New Orleans November Weatherextremeweatherwatch.com
  5. 5K7n026uspest.org
  6. 6Knew26uspest.org

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "YES" resolution occurs if the lowest temperature recorded in New Orleans on the specified day falls within the temperature range defined by the contract; otherwise, it resolves "NO." This market pertains to November 13, 2026, with an overall expiration date of November 14, 2026. Resolution may be delayed if a material error is found in the initial data publication until corrected data is available or the expiration date, whichever comes first. If no data is available by the end of this period, the market will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
53° to 54° $0.48 $0.62 65%
55° or above $0.37 $0.69 32%
51° to 52° $0.25 $0.87 19%
49° to 50° $0.10 $0.97 8%
46° or below $0.02 $1.00 1%
47° to 48° $0.02 $0.99 1%

Market Discussion

Traders on this market predominantly predict the lowest temperature in New Orleans on November 13, 2026, will be between 53° and 54°, a range currently holding a 65% probability. While there is still a significant 32% chance for the temperature to be 55° or above, probabilities for both higher (55°+) and lower ranges (49°-50°, 51°-52°) have recently declined, indicating a consolidation of opinion towards the 53°-54° bracket as the most probable outcome.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 59 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score66Caution
Trade quality20% of score28Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score59Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
72Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“KXLOWTNOLA 26NOV13 B47.5” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
30High Risk

No suspicious activity on any screen

Settlement depends on interpretation — verify the rules and source before trading.

Resolution rules read: Ambiguous

Liquidity
34Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

46° or below4
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

55° or above34
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
65Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

55° or above65
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

46° or below75
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 17h

Rule clarity
40Ambiguous

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

55° or above40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
46° or below40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
28Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 34 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: book too thin to fill

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

4 below the volume floor — not scored

55° or abovePrimary34Market scoreLiquidity34Move quality65Rule clarity40
Why 34
Liquidity
34 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
46° or below4Market scoreLiquidity4Move quality75Rule clarity40
Why 4
Liquidity
4 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
75 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 17h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

6. How do competing forecasts from the NWS, AccuWeather, and WDSU differ for New Orleans on November 13?

NWS Overnight Low Forecast (Nov 13, 2026)55°F [1]
NWS Friday-Night Low Forecast (Nov 13, 2026)48°F [1]
Kalshi Market Lowest Temp Favorite'55° or above' at 43% [2][3]
The National Weather Service provided specific low-temperature forecasts for New Orleans. For November 13, 2026, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts an overnight low around 55°F and a Friday-night low around 48°F [1]. However, no explicit low-temperature forecasts from AccuWeather or WDSU for this specific date were retrievable in the search results [2].
Prediction markets suggest New Orleans' low temperature will be in the mid-50s. The Kalshi market for the lowest temperature in New Orleans on November 13, 2026, shows '55° or above' as the favored outcome at 43%, with the >54° bucket trading at 44% [2][3]. The market's implied distribution, which has a modal bucket of 53-55°+, aligns slightly above the NWS Friday-night low of 48°F but is consistent with the NWS overnight low of 55°F [1][2][3]. This suggests that traders anticipate the day's minimum to fall in the mid-50s, more in line with the overnight low than the Friday-night low forecast [1][2][3].
The Kalshi market for high temperatures indicates a higher expectation. A related Kalshi market for the highest temperature in New Orleans on November 13, 2026, prices 68°-69° as the favorite, at 55-65% [2][4]. This indicates a modest market-versus-NWS spread on the high when compared to the NWS high near 66°F [1][2][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  2. 2Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Will the minimum temperature be >54° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

7. What meteorological catalysts could cause the final low temperature to deviate from the consensus NWS forecast of 49°F?

Probability below 47°FRoughly 2% [1][2]
Probability 47–48°F2% [1][2]
Probability 55°F or above43% [3][4][5][6][7]
Prediction markets suggest warmer temperatures, deviating from the 49°F NWS forecast. The prediction market quotes do not support 49°F as the dominant outcome for the lowest temperature in New Orleans on November 13, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]. Instead, the market indicates a significant tendency towards warmer temperatures, with an aggregate showing 43% for 55°F or above [3][4][5][6][7]. Specific National Weather Service (NWS) forecast details were not retrieved, so meteorological catalysts for temperature deviations are presented as scenario-based analyses [3][4][5][6][7].
Warmer temperatures most plausibly result from delayed fronts or persistent southerly flow. A warmer-than-forecast outcome would most plausibly stem from a delayed frontal passage or persistent warm-sector southerly flow [4][5][6][7]. Additionally, the presence of clouds, rain, or wind-driven mixing could prevent efficient overnight cooling, contributing to higher temperatures [4][5][6][7]. Prediction market quotes indicate probabilities such as 4% for 49–50°F, 20% for 51–52°F, 29% for 53–54°F, and 44% for above 54°F [3][4][5][6][7].
Colder temperatures require earlier cold-air arrival with enhanced radiational cooling. Conversely, a colder-than-forecast outcome would most plausibly result from an earlier or stronger cold-air arrival, accompanied by clearing skies and reduced wind following a frontal passage [1][2]. Such conditions would enhance radiational cooling [1][2]. The market placed approximately 2% on temperatures below 47°F and 2% on 47–48°F [1][2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Will the minimum temperature be <47° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Will the minimum temperature be 47-48° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Will the minimum temperature be 49-50° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Will the minimum temperature be >54° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Will the minimum temperature be 51-52° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  7. 7Will the minimum temperature be 53-54° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

8. What historical precedent supports WDSU's more aggressive forecast of lows in the 'lower 40s' for Nov 13?

Northshore Low (Nov 2025)Upper 30s [1]
South Shore Low (Feb 2026)Mid 40s [2]
Market Expectation (55F+)43% [3]
Historical data supports lower 40s temperatures in the New Orleans area. Past weather patterns indicate that low 40s are plausible, particularly in early November. For instance, a November 3, 2025 report detailed a strong cold front causing temperatures 10–15°F or more below average, resulting in upper-30s on the Northshore and 40s/50s across other parts of the region [1]. Further examples show lower 40s as a possibility, with a February 6, 2026 report noting mid-40s on the South Shore/bayou [2], and an April 6, 2026 example demonstrating mid-to-upper 40s on the Northshore [4].
Market sentiment, however, predicts significantly warmer temperatures for November 13. The current market snapshot reveals expectations substantially warmer than a lower-40s forecast. The most common market prediction indicates 55°F or above, leading at 43% [3]. In contrast, individual temperature ranges below 50°F hold much smaller shares: 49–50°F stands at 4% [5], 47–48°F at 2% [6], and below 47°F also at 2% [7]. This considerable difference highlights a notable divergence between historical cold possibilities and present market expectations.
Sources (7)
  1. 1New Orleans Monday forecast: Cold today, muggy later - WDSUwdsu.com
  2. 2One more frigid night before warming up early in the week - WDSUwdsu.com
  3. 3Will the minimum temperature be <47° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Chilly night ahead! Gorgeous Tuesday before spotty showers by mid week. - WDSUwdsu.com
  5. 5Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Will the minimum temperature be 47-48° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  7. 7Will the minimum temperature be 49-50° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

9. Which official weather station's reading will resolve the market, and where can its hourly data for Nov 13 be tracked?

Official Observation SiteKMSY, an ASOS airport observation site [1][2][3]
Official Resolution ReportNWS Climatological Report (Daily) [1][4][5]
Market DateNovember 13, 2026 [6][7][8]
The market for New Orleans' lowest temperature resolves via official NWS data. The market for the lowest temperature in New Orleans on November 13, 2026, will be resolved by the NWS New Orleans climate observation (CLIMSY), whose ASOS airport observation site is KMSY [1][2][3]. The official resolution source is the NWS Climatological Report (Daily), which can be accessed via the NWS climate page by selecting WFO LIX and the location New Orleans, LA [1][4][5]. The official daily result will be available at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lix [1][2][3].
Hourly temperature developments can be monitored through specific aviation data sources. For hourly monitoring of the developing low temperature on November 13, hourly KMSY observations can be tracked using aviationweather.gov KMSY METAR/ASOS observations or IEM ASOS history [1][2][3]. The market settlement for the lowest temperature in New Orleans on November 13, 2026, is controlled by the final NWS Climatological Report (Daily) (CLI), not merely the hourly minimum temperature recorded [1][2][3]. Market settlement is shown on November 14, 2026 [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Highest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 22, 2026? — Kalshi noteringen & inzichten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Platform Differences: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Robinhood vs IBKR | wethr.netwethr.net
  3. 3skills/kalshi-weather-markets/references/brackets-and-settlement.mdgithub.com
  4. 4Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Apr 3, 2026? - Result: 69° to 70° | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 22, 2026? — Quote e analisi Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  7. 7Will the minimum temperature be 51-52° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  8. 8Will the minimum temperature be 53-54° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

10. How accurate have NWS 24-hour low temperature forecasts been for New Orleans following the passage of similar November Arctic fronts?

Numerical accuracy metricsUnavailable for New Orleans November Arctic-front low forecasts [1][2][3][4]
24-hour NWS forecast reliabilityDirectionally reliable but not exact [2][3][4]
Practical uncertainty bandSeveral degrees justified [2][3][4]
Specific forecast accuracy metrics for New Orleans are not available. The research indicates that precise numerical accuracy metrics, such as MAE, RMSE, or the percentage of forecasts within 2°F, are unavailable from the provided sources for 24-hour low temperature forecasts in New Orleans following similar November Arctic fronts [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, a formal National Weather Service (NWS) verification table specifically for these conditions was not found in the available information [1][2][3][4].
NWS forecasts are directionally reliable but exact predictions vary. For decision-making, the evidence suggests that a 24-hour NWS low temperature forecast for this area should be considered directionally reliable rather than exact [2][3][4]. A practical uncertainty band of several degrees is more appropriate than relying on a single-temperature claim [2][3][4]. This is particularly true near the coast and when the timing of post-frontal clearing is uncertain, as 24-hour-plus forecasts can shift with clearer understanding of front timing and strength [2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 111.05.2026 12.04 PM CST - briefingcurrentweather.gov
  2. 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  3. 3New Orleans/Baton Rougeweather.gov
  4. 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The NWS New Orleans (LAZ077) tabular forecast for November 13, 2026, shows a low of 49°F and high of 61°F, with the narrative forecast giving Friday highs in the upper 60s and Friday-night lows in the upper 40s [1][2]. Third-party forecasts for November 13, 2026, in New Orleans, such as uscityweather.com, airportdistancecalculator.com, and Foreca, cluster around 52–54°F, warmer than the NWS 49°F low [3][4][5]. Bullish catalysts for daily temperature contracts include NWS forecast upgrades and National Blend of Models (NBM) revisions trending warmer through the day [6][7]. Bearish catalysts include early-arriving cold fronts, downward NBM revisions, and late METAR corrections before the next day's first observation [6][7]. A September 2026 preprint found later NBM forecasts moved toward Kalshi prices when the two disagreed, suggesting NBM revisions can align with market expectations [6].
The regional forecast for the period after November 13, 2026, includes a cooldown for Saturday, November 14, to a 50°F low and 66°F high, then a 40–50% chance of showers on Monday, November 16, with lows in the lower 50s [1][2]. This weekend cooldown and the Monday rain system are the main near-term catalysts for temperature contract repricing [1][2]. Daylight saving time ended November 1, 2026, aligning NWS local-time daily highs with clock time until March 2027 [6][8]. Additionally, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issues 90-day seasonal outlooks near mid-month, with the next one anticipated in the November 13–15, 2026 window, which moves longer-dated temperature contracts [6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1https://www.bayoustateweather.com/data/laz077.txtbayoustateweather.com
  2. 2https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/state/la/laz090.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  3. 3Hourly weather forecast for Fairground Park - Foreca.nzforeca.nz
  4. 4New Orleans Weather Friday, November 13, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
  5. 5Naval Air Station/Alvin Callendar (NBG) 15 Day Weather Forecast, New Orleans United Statesairportdistancecalculator.com
  6. 6Kalshi Weather Markets: Temperature, Snow and Hurricanesnextpredict.io
  7. 7NYC High Temperature on November 13: 46-47°F Market | Lines.comlines.com
  8. 8CHIHIGHcftc.gov

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXLOWTNOLA-26NOV11-T59: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXLOWTNOLA-26NOV11-T52: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXLOWTNOLA-26NOV11-B58.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXLOWTNOLA-26NOV11-B56.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXLOWTNOLA-26NOV11-B54.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)