Lowest temperature in San Diego on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
San Diego's minimum temperature on November 13, 2026, is not expected to be 54°F or below, with NWS and NBM guidance consistently forecasting the low in the 60-62°F range, a scenario the market prices at 3.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market repriced almost entirely based on weather forecasts released on November 12. Probabilities for a YES resolution collapsed 37 percentage points, from 40.0% to 3.0%, after multiple models projected a low temperature for San Diego on November 13 that was significantly warmer than the contract's apparent threshold. The primary driver was a National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for a low around 61°F.
The NWS data was reinforced by a consensus of independent models. Groundhog.markets, using nine different forecasts, calculated a consensus low of 61.2°F. Other inputs, including the National Blend Model (60.0°F) and Kalshi's forecast (60.6°F), all pointed to a similar outcome. This strong model agreement effectively eliminated the probability of a temperature drop sufficient to resolve the contract as YES. The volume of over 900 contracts, with most trading occurring during the repricing, indicates a decisive market reaction to the new information.
- San Diego's low temperature on November 13 is expected above 55°F.
- NWS and NBM forecast 60-62°F, 4-5°F above normal, due to cloud cover.
- Stronger cold advection or coastal thunderstorms could push temperatures below 55°F.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or below | 3.0% | 1.4% | Stronger-than-expected cold air advection or enhanced cooling could push temperatures below 55°F. |
| 61° to 62° | 30.0% | 1.4% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
| 63° or above | 25.0% | 1.4% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
| 55° to 56° | 21.0% | 1.4% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
| 57° to 58° | 24.0% | 1.4% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
Current Context
San Diego's lowest temperature on November 13, 2026, is forecast around 60-61°F. The National Weather Service (NWS) point forecast, issued at 12:28pm PST on November 12, projects a low around 61°F for Thursday night into Friday morning [1]. Groundhog.markets' consensus, based on nine forecasts as of 08:00Z on November 13, sets the Friday low at 61.2°F, with a spread of 58.3–63.1°F [2]. Hourly forecasts from uscityweather and SatMeteo corroborate this, showing a 16°C/60°F low around 5–7am Friday, coinciding with 100% overnight rain probability [3][4]. Other models include a Kalshi low forecast of 60.6°F and a National Blend Model (NBM) forecast of 60.0°F [2]. This forecast low is close to the typical November 13 average low of 55.0°F, while the record low is 40°F [5].
A significant rain event is expected late Thursday night into Friday morning. The NWS Area Forecast Discussion (issued November 12) indicates a 65–85% chance of at least 0.25 inches of rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, with an upper-level low moving into Northern Baja on Friday [6]. Coastal thunderstorms are possible early Friday morning due to CAPE values of 500–1000 J/kg [6]. Highs are expected to be 5–10 degrees below normal next week, with Friday coast highs 67–70°F, approximately 7 degrees below average [6][7]. Kalshi San Diego temperature markets settle on the daily high/low at San Diego International Airport (KSAN), per the NWS CLISAN report, recording whole degrees from midnight-to-midnight PST [8][2].
Sources (8)
- 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 2San Diego, CA weather forecastgroundhog.markets
- 3San Diego Weather Friday, November 13, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
- 4San Diego 7-Day Weather Forecast – Daily Outlook | SatMeteosatmeteo.com
- 5San Diego November Weatherextremeweatherwatch.com
- 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 7Megan's Forecast: Rain moves in by Friday morning10news.com
- 8Kalshi San Diego high temperature: settles at San Diego International (KSAN) · Almanacalmanacmarket.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 55° to 56°
📈 November 13, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 21.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 19.0 percentage point spike in the "55° to 56°" outcome was a traditional news report from 10News on November 13, 2026 [1]. Meteorologist Megan Parry announced a series of storms bringing rain and forecast temperatures dropping approximately 7 degrees below average for that day [1]. This news indicated a significant shift towards colder conditions, leading traders to reprice the market for lower minimum temperatures before the actual temperature was recorded [1][2][3]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary or contributing factor to this price movement.
Outcome: 54° or below
📉 November 12, 2026: 37.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 3.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 37.0 percentage point drop was the release of updated weather forecasts on November 12, 2026, predicting the lowest temperature for San Diego on November 13, 2026, would be above 54°F. Specifically, the National Weather Service San Diego forecast indicated a Friday night low around 56°F [4], while AccuWeather and SatMeteo predicted lows of 64°F and 60°F, respectively [5][6][7]. These consistent forecasts from traditional news and data sources directly contradicted the "54° or below" outcome, causing the market to adjust. Social media activity was irrelevant to this price movement.
Sources (7)
- 1Megan's Forecast: Rain moves in by Friday morning10news.com
- 2Lowest temperature in San Diego on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Will the minimum temperature be <55° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5San Diego, CA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 6San Diego 7-Day Weather Forecast – Daily Outlook | SatMeteosatmeteo.com
- 7San Diego Weather Friday, November 13, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves YES for a specific temperature range if the lowest temperature in San Diego on November 13, 2026, falls within that chosen range, otherwise it resolves NO. The maximum payout date is listed as November 14, 2026. Special settlement conditions allow for delayed expiration if a material error is found in the initial data publication; if no data becomes available, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by the exchange.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61° to 62° | $0.43 | $0.97 | 30% |
| 59° to 60° | $0.48 | $0.71 | 29% |
| 63° or above | $0.46 | $0.98 | 25% |
| 57° to 58° | $0.32 | $0.98 | 24% |
| 55° to 56° | $0.21 | $0.98 | 21% |
| 54° or below | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Traders on Kalshi currently predict the lowest temperature in San Diego on November 13, 2026, is most likely to be between 59°F and 62°F, with the 61°-62°F range holding the highest probability at 30%, closely followed by 59°-60°F at 29%. There's a strong consensus against very low temperatures (54°F or below, at 3%), while the probability for the 55°-56°F range has seen a significant recent increase of 19%. The market data reflects a collective view that moderate low temperatures are most probable for the day.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score67Caution
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score55Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. What meteorological catalysts associated with the incoming storm system could push San Diego's November 13 low temperature below the forecasted 60-61°F range?
| El Nino Prediction | Winter 2026-27 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Inland Temperature Difference | 10-15°F (5-8°C) colder than coastal [3][4] |
| San Diego Average November Low | 49-55°F [5][6][7][3][8] |
Several meteorological factors could significantly lower San Diego's storm-related temperatures. Key catalysts that might push San Diego's November 13 low temperature below the forecasted 60-61°F range include cold air advection, conditions that enhance radiational cooling, and the influence of frontal passages associated with incoming storm systems [1][2][9][10][11]. A strong El Niño, predicted for winter 2026-27, increases the likelihood of storm activity and above-normal precipitation in Southern California, creating conditions where significant temperature drops following frontal passages are plausible [1][2]. The influx of colder, often drier air accompanying these systems can lead to sharper temperature reductions than initially predicted, with minimal cloud cover and light winds further enhancing surface cooling through radiation [9][10][11].
Localized conditions, including evaporational cooling, intensify temperature drops, especially inland. Evaporational cooling is an energy-absorbing process that extracts heat from the surrounding atmosphere, resulting in a temperature decrease [12][13]. This effect would be more pronounced in San Diego's inland areas, which can be significantly drier than the typically more humid coastal regions [14][15]. San Diego is notable for its varied microclimates, with inland areas potentially experiencing temperatures 10-15°F (5-8°C) colder than coastal regions, particularly when the marine layer is absent [3][16][17][4]. Historically, San Diego's average low temperatures in November typically range between 49°F and 55°F, suggesting that temperatures below the 60-61°F forecast are not uncommon for the month [5][6][7][3][8].
Sources (17)
- 1ageerestorationservices.com
- 2calmatters.org
- 3securelinksolutions.com.auaescsf.securelinksolutions.com.au
- 4reddit.com
- 5accuweather.com
- 6weatherspark.com
- 7californiatoday.com
- 8sust.educsecarnival.sust.edu
- 9theweatherprediction.com
- 10psu.educourses.ems.psu.edu
- 11rowancountyweather.com
- 12youtube.com
- 13weather.usblog.weather.us
- 14climateprosd.com
- 15localunitedservices.com
- 16versarien.com
- 17fleetscience.org
7. What specific data points from the National Weather Service (NWS) and National Blend of Models (NBM) support the consensus forecast for a low temperature near 61°F on November 13?
| Forecast Low Temperature | 61°F (November 13, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Departure from Climate Normal | 4-5°F above normal [1][2][3] |
| Climate Normal for Nov 13 | 56-57°F at San Diego International Airport [1][2][3] |
The National Weather Service forecasts a low of 61°F for November 13. The National Weather Service (NWS) San Diego Area Forecast Discussion (AFD), issued on November 12, 2026, projects a low temperature near 61°F for November 13, 2026 [1]. This specific forecast is supported by anticipated cloud cover and weak cyclonic flow expected from late Thursday night into Friday morning [1]. This projected low of 61°F is notably higher than average, approximately 4-5°F above the November 13 climate normal of about 56-57°F at San Diego International Airport [1][2][3].
NBM guidance and evolving weather patterns underpin this forecast. The NWS AFD explicitly bases its forecast on National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance, highlighting good ensemble agreement on trough timing [1]. An earlier NWS SGX AFD on November 6 had indicated that high pressure would keep temperatures above normal, with a potential system nearing by late in the week [4]. The subsequent November 12 AFD confirmed this system's arrival as a closed low over the California Bight, thereby validating the outlook for an above-normal low temperature on November 13 [4][1]. Furthermore, observed minimums at San Diego International Airport, including 62°F on November 4, 2026, and 59°F on November 9, 2026, provide relevant context for the 61°F forecast [2][3].
8. How do the November 13 low temperature forecasts for San Diego from the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) models compare to the local NWS point forecast?
| NWS Low Temperature Forecast (Nov 13, "Tonight") | 61°F [1][2] |
|---|---|
| NWS Low Temperature Forecast (Nov 13, "Friday Night") | 62°F [2][3] |
| European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) Models Low Temperature Forecast | Not directly found for November 13, 2026 [4][5][6][7] |
The local NWS predicts low temperatures between 61°F and 62°F. The National Weather Service (NWS) point forecast for San Diego, CA, on November 13, 2026, indicates low temperatures ranging from 61°F to 62°F. Specifically, the NWS forecast for San Diego-Downtown, CA, projects a low of 61°F for "Tonight," identified as November 13th [1][2]. Additionally, the forecast for "Friday Night," also corresponding to November 13th night, suggests a low temperature of approximately 62°F [2][3].
Precise forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models were not directly available. A precise numerical low-temperature forecast for San Diego on November 13, 2026, from the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) models was not directly found within the available research. While several sources referenced these models or platforms where their data could be viewed, explicit numerical forecasts for the specified date were unavailable in the provided snippets [4][5][6][7]. Consequently, a direct comparison between the NWS forecast and those from the ECMWF and GFS models cannot be made based on the currently available information.
9. What historical data is available to assess the forecast accuracy of the NWS and major ensemble models for San Diego's low temperatures in mid-November?
| Historical Temperature Data Access | NWS climate databases and weather history archives (San Diego specific via NWS SGX) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Ensemble Model Accuracy Metrics | Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for ensemble mean and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) [6][7] |
| Advanced Model Performance | Major ensemble models and advanced ensemble systems often show superior performance and can outperform traditional deterministic models [6][7][8][9] |
Accessing historical NWS forecasts for San Diego's low temperatures is complex. To accurately assess the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast accuracy for San Diego's mid-November low temperatures, historical NWS low-temperature forecasts for specific dates and various lead times are necessary [10][11]. While historical daily temperature data for San Diego, including low temperatures, is readily available through NWS climate databases, weather history archives, and other online sources [1][2][3][4][5], obtaining the corresponding NWS forecasts for these precise conditions and lead times may necessitate a deeper examination of their internal records [10][12]. The NWS San Diego office (SGX) does offer general access to local climate information and weather history for the region [3][4][5].
Major ensemble models offer superior accuracy and probabilistic skill. Forecast accuracy generally diminishes as the lead time increases [10]. Major ensemble models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), are specifically designed to quantify forecast uncertainty [6][8][9]. These models are evaluated using metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for the ensemble mean and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), which have proven effective for temperature forecasts across varying lead times [6][7]. Advanced ensemble systems, some integrating machine learning, frequently demonstrate superior performance, outperforming traditional deterministic models and even established ensembles like the raw ECMWF extended-range ensemble for 2-meter temperature, particularly at medium to extended lead times [6][7]. The NWS also consults these major numerical models in its operations [9].
10. How does the forecasted ~61°F low for November 13, 2026, compare against the historical climate normals and record lows for San Diego on that date?
| Market's Favorite Range | 59–60°F [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Second-Most Likely Range | 61–62°F [1][2] |
| Forecasted Lowest Temperature | Approximately 61°F [1][2] |
The forecasted lowest temperature for San Diego on November 13, 2026, is approximately 61°F [1][2]. This prediction corresponds with the market's second-most probable temperature range, which is 61–62°F [1][2]. The market had slightly favored a cooler range for this date, identifying 59–60°F as the most likely outcome [1][2].
Other market predictions show a wider range of possibilities. Beyond the top two probabilities, additional market predictions for San Diego's lowest temperature on November 13, 2026, included several other ranges [1]. These were 57–58°F, assigned a 15% probability; 63°F or above, with a 14% chance; 55–56°F, at 7%; and 54°F or below, representing a 2% likelihood [1].
Historical climate data is unavailable for direct comparison. A direct comparison of this forecasted low temperature against San Diego's historical climate normals or record lows for November 13 is not possible [1]. The available information does not include data on these specific historical metrics, precluding an analysis of how the 2026 forecast aligns with past climate patterns or extreme records for that date [1].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A storm system constitutes the primary bearish weather catalyst for San Diego, forecast to bring rain Friday morning, possible coastal thunderstorms, and gusty winds, driving temperatures near 7°F below average [1]. Coastal Friday highs are expected at 67–70°F [1]. The lowest forecast temperature for San Diego on Nov. 13, 2026, is approximately 60–61°F (15.6–16.1°C), with hourly minimums anticipated around 5–7 a.m. [2][3]. One hourly source indicates 16°C at 5–6 a.m. and 15°C at 7 a.m. in its apparent/forecast fields, while the station-consensus page reports a 61.2°F median low [2][3].
Conversely, afternoon improvement and clearing after morning precipitation offers a bullish catalyst, potentially supporting a high near or above 70°F, especially away from the coast [1][4]. Kalshi’s Nov. 13 San Diego high-temperature market showed 71–72°F as the leading outcome at 57% in one snapshot; another market aggregator reported 63%, with 69–70°F as the runner-up at 24% [5][6]. A weather-props model blend estimated a 53% consensus probability for San Diego’s high to reach at least 71°F, though with notable model disagreement: IFS Ensemble 97%, WeatherNext 2 68%, NWS 59%, AIFS 55%, HRES 42%, National Blend 40%, and ICON 8% [7].
The market remains highly sensitive to station definition, forecast updates, and the official KSAN settlement record [1][4][7][3]. The Nov. 13 high-temperature contract is scheduled to settle Nov. 14, 2026 [8]. The relevant weather-impact window includes the Friday morning low, Friday afternoon high, and a High Surf Advisory from 4 p.m. Friday through 10 a.m. Sunday [8][6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (8)
- 1Megan's Forecast: Rain moves in by Friday morning10news.com
- 2San Diego Weather Friday, November 13, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
- 3San Diego, CA weather forecastgroundhog.markets
- 4Hourly weather tomorrow in Rancho San Diego - Foreca.netforeca.net
- 5Highest temperature in San Diego tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 6Highest temperature in San Diego on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 7High ≥ 71°F · San Diego, CA — Weather Propsweatherprops.com
- 8Friday, November 13, 2026. San Diego, CA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXLOWTSAN-26NOV11-T64: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXLOWTSAN-26NOV11-T57: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXLOWTSAN-26NOV11-B63.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXLOWTSAN-26NOV11-B61.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXLOWTSAN-26NOV11-B59.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
