Topic tracker · Crypto

Bitcoin price up down

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 74 so far (0 live, 74 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Bitcoin price up down markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated July 31, 2026

Series history

Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.

MarketClosedModel vs marketActions
BTC 15 min · $64,777.12 target July 31, 2026 20.8% vs 14.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,118.28 target July 31, 2026 8.4% vs 12.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,776.62 target July 23, 2026 10.5% vs 13.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $64,485.78 target July 16, 2026 87.8% vs 84.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,758.18 target July 13, 2026 70.9% vs 62.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $64,155.73 target July 6, 2026 46.9% vs 41.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,008.68 target July 6, 2026 1.8% vs 1.1% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,124.02 target July 4, 2026 99.5% vs 99.5% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,906.91 target June 22, 2026 23.0% vs 26.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,493.18 target June 20, 2026 16.0% vs 14.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,881.95 target June 18, 2026 47.9% vs 42.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,849.45 target June 18, 2026 95.5% vs 96.4% Report →
BTC 15 min · $64,425.44 target June 17, 2026 49.0% vs 47.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,496.07 target June 17, 2026 43.0% vs 47.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,624.94 target June 17, 2026 32.7% vs 44.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,567.30 target June 17, 2026 30.7% vs 36.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,671.35 target June 17, 2026 90.8% vs 86.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,721.57 target June 17, 2026 19.5% vs 13.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $66,427.62 target June 16, 2026 53.0% vs 45.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $66,361.18 target June 16, 2026 53.9% vs 42.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $66,436.88 target June 16, 2026 33.0% vs 32.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $66,473.63 target June 16, 2026 74.2% vs 64.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $66,469.19 target June 16, 2026 41.8% vs 38.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,831.55 target June 16, 2026 49.0% vs 47.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,943.30 target June 16, 2026 77.0% vs 77.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,780.04 target June 16, 2026 51.9% vs 40.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $65,686.10 target June 16, 2026 87.2% vs 82.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,534.61 target June 11, 2026 33.5% vs 39.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,577.76 target June 11, 2026 48.0% vs 44.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,467.49 target June 11, 2026 77.0% vs 74.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $63,521.65 target June 11, 2026 14.9% vs 22.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,549.30 target June 11, 2026 50.1% vs 58.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,644.53 target June 11, 2026 29.0% vs 29.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,589.71 target June 11, 2026 91.6% vs 92.2% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,034.82 target June 9, 2026 31.7% vs 39.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,036.06 target June 9, 2026 33.8% vs 24.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,377.64 target June 7, 2026 57.3% vs 54.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,203.85 target June 7, 2026 46.7% vs 37.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,194.96 target June 7, 2026 44.0% vs 52.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,111.14 target June 7, 2026 52.0% vs 52.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,123.38 target June 7, 2026 20.2% vs 29.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $62,180.94 target June 7, 2026 53.0% vs 57.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $61,967.60 target June 7, 2026 62.6% vs 68.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $71,516.29 target June 1, 2026 28.8% vs 27.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,441.92 target May 28, 2026 57.0% vs 49.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $77,229.12 target May 22, 2026 61.8% vs 54.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $77,190.17 target May 22, 2026 55.2% vs 53.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $76,825.72 target May 19, 2026 55.5% vs 51.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $76,931.97 target May 19, 2026 54.9% vs 43.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $76,972.03 target May 19, 2026 44.0% vs 44.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $77,927.02 target May 16, 2026 62.5% vs 56.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $77,874.58 target May 16, 2026 69.1% vs 58.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $77,986.73 target May 16, 2026 56.5% vs 52.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $78,042.38 target May 16, 2026 62.1% vs 60.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $77,930.73 target May 16, 2026 79.5% vs 82.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $78,039.08 target May 16, 2026 21.3% vs 20.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $78,214.40 target May 3, 2026 69.1% vs 58.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $78,230.61 target May 3, 2026 0.8% vs 0.5% Report →
BTC 15 min · $78,157.01 target May 3, 2026 96.6% vs 94.6% Report →
BTC 15 min · $78,018.37 target April 26, 2026 27.0% vs 27.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,711.70 target April 16, 2026 3.1% vs 3.1% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,823.34 target April 16, 2026 16.0% vs 16.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,680.15 target April 15, 2026 40.0% vs 40.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,416.80 target April 15, 2026 50.1% vs 58.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,219.71 target April 15, 2026 83.0% vs 78.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,303.63 target April 15, 2026 61.0% vs 61.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,283.13 target April 14, 2026 51.0% vs 51.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $74,634.70 target April 14, 2026 99.5% vs 99.9% Report →
BTC 15 min · $71,689.93 target April 12, 2026 39.0% vs 39.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $70,056.04 target April 7, 2026 0.5% vs 0.1% Report →
BTC 15 min · $68,307.28 target April 7, 2026 68.0% vs 68.0% Report →
BTC 15 min · $67,431.59 target March 31, 2026 44.0% vs 44.0% Report →
BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes February 20, 2026 9.4% vs 43.5% Report →
BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes February 13, 2026 95.0% vs 95.0% Report →

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